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I.B.D. column:
Conservatives Will Win Again Because Canada's Economy is Strong
According to Roger Conrad, editor of the market-beating Canadian Edge investment service, the Conservatives are likely to win another plurality in early elections: “The bottom line is neither the Liberals nor any other party has a realistic chance of winning power.”
The reason to expect another Conservative victory is clear: the Canadian economy is doing extremely well under Prime Minister Harper’s leadership. Unlike most of the world, the Canadian economy is enjoying an enviable combination of low inflation and growth. Just last week, Statistics Canada reported that core inflation in February was only 0.9%, the lowest level since the government started keeping records in 1984! As one economist put it:
While the rest of the world seems to be grappling with rising inflation pressures, Canada is going in the opposite direction – both headline and core inflation have eased since the start of the year.
At the same time, the government has upped its forecast for economic growth in 2011 from 2.5% to 2.9%. Wells Fargo Securities praises Canada’s economy, saying it is one of the best in the world right now:
While Canada did endure a recession, the fallout was not as bad as other large, developed economies. The peak-to-trough decline in Canadian real GDP was 3.3 percent, not as severe as the more than 4 percent decline in the United States and a far cry from the 6.4 percent decline in the United Kingdom. The Canadian economy also bounced back quickly. While many developed economies are still in recovery (which is to say that GDP has yet to return to pre-recession levels), total output in Canada crested above its pre-recession peak in the second quarter of 2010 and has been in expansion territory ever since.
There are a number of explanatory factors that can shed some light on the relative outperformance of [Canada] including a less-leveraged consumer and rapid implementation of government stimulus programs. Still, the attribute that perhaps goes the furthest toward explaining the difference is that Canada is rich in natural resources and exports of raw materials are important. The fast pace of growth in developing economies over the past few years, especially in China, has increased demand for raw materials and that has helped boost economic growth in Canada.
Clearly, Canada is the place to invest right now.
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