Trumps is in!

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by nailer

Is anyone?

If he doesn't see that his candidacy will split the anti-Trump vote and thus elect Trump, he's an idiot. He's not an idiot.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

If he doesn't see that his candidacy will split the anti-Trump vote and thus elect Trump, he's an idiot. He's not an idiot.

Most definitely he does not want to elect Trump...Trump did not survive the litmus test: Trump says he wants to be an honest broker re any Israeli/Palestinian negotiation.

For Bloomy that is a big NO, NO.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Most definitely he does not want to elect Trump...Trump did not survive the litmus test: Trump says he wants to be an honest broker re any Israeli/Palestinian negotiation.

For Bloomy that is a big NO, NO.

Here it is.

1. Some Republican voters and independents hate Trump, but may not like the Democratic nominee much either. So some of the ones that would have voted Democratic anyway because they hate Trump will choose to vote for Bloomberg instead. Some Democratic votes are wedged off.

2. Some Democrats may not like the Democratic nominee, but would do a 'hold your nose' vote rather than vote for Trump. If there's a Bloomberg alternative some will desert the Democrat to vote for him. More Democratic voters wedged off.

3. I don't see many Trump voters deserting him to vote for Bloomberg. So Bloomberg's votes are going to mostly come from the anti-Trump blocs. Meanwhile Trump's ability to appeal to authoritarians will activate these tendencies among people who normally vote Democratic. Basically, Trump's ability to wedge off these Democrats is unchanged, while Bloomberg interferes with the Democrat's corresponding ability to wedge off Trump-hating Republicans.

Bloomberg is probably convincing himself he can get a plurality be putting together Republicans who hate Trump and Democrats who don't like their nominee. He's kidding himself. He'll come in third. But he'll wedge off lots of the anti-Trump vote from the Democrat, as well as some hold-your-nose Democrats. But he won't hurt trump much. So, that's how Trump could win.

[Rajoo]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Here it is.

1. Some Republican voters and independents hate Trump, but may not like the Democratic nominee much either. So some of the ones that would have voted Democratic anyway because they hate Trump will choose to vote for Bloomberg instead. Some Democratic votes are wedged off.

2. Some Democrats may not like the Democratic nominee, but would do a 'hold your nose' vote rather than vote for Trump. If there's a Bloomberg alternative some will desert the Democrat to vote for him. More Democratic voters wedged off.

3. I don't see many Trump voters deserting him to vote for Bloomberg. So Bloomberg's votes are going to mostly come from the anti-Trump blocs. Meanwhile Trump's ability to appeal to authoritarians will activate these tendencies among people who normally vote Democratic. Basically, Trump's ability to wedge off these Democrats is unchanged, while Bloomberg interferes with the Democrat's corresponding ability to wedge off Trump-hating Republicans.

Bloomberg is probably convincing himself he can get a plurality be putting together Republicans who hate Trump and Democrats who don't like their nominee. He's kidding himself. He'll come in third. But he'll wedge off lots of the anti-Trump vote from the Democrat, as well as some hold-your-nose Democrats. But he won't hurt trump much. So, that's how Trump could win.

A very good post Don and here is how this applies to me.

I should vote for Hillary to prevent Trump from winning, not vote for Bloomberg since that would make Hillary lose to Trump, yet Hillary will be a rotten President. What a dilemma!

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by BeamOn

A very good post Don and here is how this applies to me.

I should vote for Hillary to prevent Trump from winning, not vote for Bloomberg since that would make Hillary lose to Trump, yet Hillary will be a rotten President. What a dilemma!

It's not clear to me that Hillary will be a bad president but I'm in no doubt whatsoever that Trump would be. Hillary would benefit hugely from Bill's wisdom and from her own experience as a First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State. Her problem is that I don't see her having any coattails at all.

Bernie, on the other hand, would have YUUUUGE coattails. Frighteningly, though, I think Trump could too.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by Boreas

It's not clear to me that Hillary will be a bad president but I'm in no doubt whatsoever that Trump would be. Hillary would benefit hugely from Bill's wisdom and from her own experience as a First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State. Her problem is that I don't see her having any coattails at all.

Bernie, on the other hand, would have YUUUUGE coattails. Frighteningly, though, I think Trump could too.

I fear Hillary, because I feel at heart she is a Neocon.

[nailer]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

I fear Hillary, because I feel at heart she is a Neocon.

Which explains her OIF enthusiasm.

Thing is - she's almost heartless. (Giving her grandma points.)

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

I fear Hillary, because I feel at heart she is a Neocon.

She's owned by the MIC among others.

They make trillions off of these wars.

So what's a $100 million in campaign donations to them?

A small investment that returns many thousands to one.

[nailer]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Here it is.

1. Some Republican voters and independents hate Trump, but may not like the Democratic nominee much either. So some of the ones that would have voted Democratic anyway because they hate Trump will choose to vote for Bloomberg instead. Some Democratic votes are wedged off.

2. Some Democrats may not like the Democratic nominee, but would do a 'hold your nose' vote rather than vote for Trump. If there's a Bloomberg alternative some will desert the Democrat to vote for him. More Democratic voters wedged off.

3. I don't see many Trump voters deserting him to vote for Bloomberg. So Bloomberg's votes are going to mostly come from the anti-Trump blocs. Meanwhile Trump's ability to appeal to authoritarians will activate these tendencies among people who normally vote Democratic. Basically, Trump's ability to wedge off these Democrats is unchanged, while Bloomberg interferes with the Democrat's corresponding ability to wedge off Trump-hating Republicans.

Bloomberg is probably convincing himself he can get a plurality be putting together Republicans who hate Trump and Democrats who don't like their nominee. He's kidding himself. He'll come in third. But he'll wedge off lots of the anti-Trump vote from the Democrat, as well as some hold-your-nose Democrats. But he won't hurt trump much. So, that's how Trump could win.

In a Bloomberg/Clinton/Trump election I think Trump's Dorian Gray picture, which doesn't work on all, will slowly but surely lose its power. This will lose him votes he already has in hand and harm his ability to draw from the undecided. Against Clinton alone, Trump's hideous portrait's power remains in play. This is Bloomberg's chance at the brass ring. How can he resist?

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by nailer

I think Trump's Dorian Gray picture, which doesn't work on all, will slowly but surely lose its power.

People have been saying this ever since Trump began his campaign and there hasn't been the slightest indication so far that this will happen. The Dorian Gray image has already worked on the people it'll work on and already failed to work on most of the rest of us.

The choice between Trump and Bloomberg is almost as stark as the choice between Trump and Clinton.