The Trump Economy

[Chicks]

One of the world's top economists just dropped a chilling 8-week recession ultimatum — here's what must happen now
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...2.cms?from=mdr

El-Erian made it clear that everything hinges on the reopening of a major strait that has been at the center of ongoing geopolitical tensions, as per a Fortune report. If the flow of oil returns to normal within that narrow window, the global economy may steady itself. If not, the situation could shift quickly and dramatically toward recession.

Great job, Donny!

[RickeyM]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Political verbiage is cheap.
What is of import is the central thrust of a nation.

That central thrust of containing China, (Right now restricting access to cheap energy) takes precedent over whatever other local, political, convenient noise.

One needs to go back to Rubio's confirmation hearing and also read this year security document of the USA.

China is in a bad spot. It imports a significant portion of its energy via sea routs. It sensed what the USA was about and tried to load up on cheap energy. The USA harassed and is going to harass any flow going to China.

Yeah..., about that.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/china...-iran-intl-hnk

[Dondilion]

When an oil producing country is sanctioned, it is forced to sell its oil cheaply. China has been a big beneficiary of this and has been urgently putting in storage this cheap oil. The Trump administration has made efforts to deny China this cheap oil.

Some of the admins arguments: The Chinese already have innovation and scale; adding low cost would be too much weight in their favor.
Moreover fossil fuel is special. While there are some pros for renewables, fossil is special.
Fossil has so many derivatives: kerosene, diesel, lubricants, plastics, tar, fertilizer etc.

[Rajoo]

^^Yet we buy anything and everything from China, so how does this make any sense. China controls just about all of the rare earth mineral supply and now even more critical though not rare Gallium. So their deck is stacked and can make us heel anytime they want to.

What Trump is doing is playing games, not seriously negotiating trade and his impending visit to meet Xi proves it, a photo op rather than serious trade negotiations which is done behind the scenes.

A big question: If China sends to Iran say ten of their tankers, will the Trump blockade stop them? I am betting no because they can and will put the screws and tighten it ever so slowly. They have not complained about oil prices yet and reason I believe is that it is hurting the US economy a lot more than theirs.

[RickeyM]

Don't forget China is getting more newly unsanctioned oil from Russia. At least the oil Ukraine hasn't blown up already.

[Dondilion]

The reality is nobody can compete against the Chinese. The Chinese once they get a foot in take over whatever local industry that they target.
Trump is only main stream politician who sensed this long time ago.

Clinton: Brought China into WTO which obviated its need to face a yearly favored nation test.
Son Bush: He was not paying much attention.
Obama: He was busy with Financialization of the economy. However when he realized the pace of the Chinese, he belatedly announced his Pivot To Asia. By then China was moving up the valued added table.

Trump: First term - tried to slow down the Chinese, but by then the Chinese pace had gathered steam.

Biden: At first when he was warned said "C'mon China?. Then the realization hit. He sent Janet Yellen to legitimately complain about over capacity and dumping, and his commerce secretary to restrict semi conductor sale.

The Europeans fell asleep. Initially they were making money in China that they did not see what was coming down the pike. The Chinese are eating their lunch everywhere. The Germans were really clueless; they sold KUKA to Chinese.

Trump is prescient. He is the only one who saw early the ubiquitous Chinese economic play.

[Chicks]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Trump is prescient. He is the only one who saw early the ubiquitous Chinese economic play.

Nonsense as always from you. Financial Times is infinitely smarter than you on this. Read and learn.

Trump’s strategy of accommodation with China is a historic mistake
The upcoming summit in Beijing could lock in an American posture of strategic deference
https://www.ft.com/content/1445c85a-...b-2a95a4c6aa24

Donny hasn't a clue.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Trump is prescient...

That is literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

[Dondilion]

The Financial Times? Writings of the same clique which gave away the store under the heading: China would stick to making socks and toys and become democratic.

It was Trump who set back Huawei and gave Nokia and Ericsson a chance to survive.

Never in the history of the world has one country execute such incomparable capacity.
There are dark factories in China churning out stuff around the clock. How does the rest of the world compete?

Yeah, with regards to China Trump is prescient.

[Chicks]

NY Fed's Williams warns of 'significant and unpredictable' risks to economy from Iran war
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/po...173610986.html

Williams attributes a full percentage point of the 3.5% inflation rate in March, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, to a combination of higher tariffs and higher energy prices. He said he expects inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2% goal for the next few quarters on account of higher energy prices and tariffs, which he said continue to be “borne overwhelmingly by domestic producers and consumers.”

But... her emails!