The Biden Economy

[whell]

Originally Posted by Rajoo

Refuting an actual with a forecast? Brilliant.
Its pissing on yourself instead of throwing darts.

Originally Posted by Chicks

Poor Whell. He simply can't abide facts that refute his ongoing narrative. Sad little Trumpkin.

Toothless and dickless: if you have information to the contrary that refutes the facts that underlie these forecasts, by all means post it. But the facts remain:

- inflation is still pushing up costs for consumers and businesses
- consumer debt is on the rise and defaults are increasing
- yield curve still inverted, a historical marker for recessionary conditions
- The Fed is still keeping rate increases on the table.

Attacking the poster is not the same as rebutting an argument. You're great st the former but you suck at the latter.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

Toothless and dickless: if you have information to the contrary that refutes the facts that underlie these forecasts, by all means post it. But the facts remain...

The fact that remains is that all the gloom and doom forecasts by conservatives of a deep recession and runaway inflation (stagflation) have not come to pass. What has happened is that the US under Biden has outperformed pretty much every other First World economy and achieved an elusive soft landing (that many thought impossible) despite the lingering effects of COVID on the world economy.

As for your "facts" and prognosticators, neither predicted the 5.2% growth rate for this quarter.

[Oerets]

Pretty simple to understand the two opposing views on this and many other issues confronting our country today.

One side still believes their guy to be a honest successful businessman, good christian family man. A patriot with the countries well fair his top concern. Believe in Biden running a criminal organization and also feeble minded failing to see the contradictions there in.

So for them to believe what they are told with no independent thought is to be expected. When they already have shown to be easily swayed.

Compared to the other side who uses a open mind and experiences along with seeking multifaceted well educated based information. To then come to a decision on current events.

[Chicks]

Inflation Is Over – What Comes Next?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...at-comes-next/

Sorry, Whell, I know this article is well above your comprehension level.

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

The fact that remains is that all the gloom and doom forecasts by conservatives of a deep recession and runaway inflation (stagflation) have not come to pass. What has happened is that the US under Biden has outperformed pretty much every other First World economy and achieved an elusive soft landing (that many thought impossible) despite the lingering effects of COVID on the world economy.

As for your "facts" and prognosticators, neither predicted the 5.2% growth rate for this quarter.

Uh, I think you're getting out over your skis just a bit.

1) The Fed is still talking about interest rate increases, so no, your "elusive soft landing" hasn't happened yet. I sincerely hope it does. Fed policy has zero to do with anything Biden may/may not have done.

2) The Fed is still talking about interest rate increases because inflation is still an issue, and still above the Fed's target rate. Is it "runaway inflation"? No, its not as bad as it was after Biden pumped billions of additional COVID relief funding into the economy. However, as my wife and I were observing just last evening: a jar of store-brand apple sauce that just over a year ago cost about $1.50 is now $3.30. Just one example that reminds us that while the rate of inflation increase is going down, prices are still going up and - at least at the moment - there's little downward pressure on consumer prices.

3) Not sure how you can point to one calendar quarter of (unadjusted) reported GDP growth and say with a straight face that the "doom and gloom" predictions have not come to pass. I've said many times going back a couple of years that the dumping economic stimulus on tight supply was a recipe for inflation. (Speaking of "prognostications", if memory serves, it was you back in 2017 that predicted tax cuts would cause inflation that never happened.) We also have record-level consumer debt and increasing defaults as folks are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. The job market has been slowing all year - a trend that appears to be continuing into November - as employers have been pulling back and have become more concerned about near-term expense control.

If we do manage to avoid a recession - and I sincerely hope we do - it doesn't take away from the fact that folks are feeling the pinch of rising inflation and rising debt, and a Fed that is still concerned about keeping interest rates elevated to manage inflation. I don't think the complete story on this economy has been written just yet.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

Inflation Is Over – What Comes Next?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...at-comes-next/

Sorry, Whell, I know this article is well above your comprehension level.

The subject in its entirety may well be above your comprehension level. If "inflation is over", someone forgot to tell the Fed:

The Federal Reserve is expected to ultimately cut interest rates in 2024, but in a measured way and with action weighted toward the second half. Today, the Fed Funds target rate is 5.25% to 5.5%. Markets expect that to fall by approximately 1% by the end of 2024 — as assessed by the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures the implied expectations of the debt markets. The current range of outcomes for rates suggests a likely figure between 4% and 5% for short-term rates by December 2024.

The Fed’s own more recent projections from September 20 are more hawkish than the market’s view. They suggest rates may not decline quite as much and fall to the 4.% to 5.5% range by December 2024.

In other words, no one at the Fed has stated if and when rate cuts would be considered appropriate, and confirmed the timing of those cuts.

Also, the author of your quoted article bases his "inflation is over" comment by looking only a "Core CPE". That's only part of the data that the Fed looks at.

October’s CPI report saw headline inflation cool to a 3.2% annual rate as energy prices fell. However, stripping out food and energy, the underlying rate is 4.0%. Importantly, shelter costs rose more slowly than many months of 2023, which is important given the category’s weight in the series. These shelter cost trends may reassure the Fed. Still, the inflation rate, though decelerating for much of 2023, is still well above the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target, and services inflation remains fairly high. As such, Fed officials have stated that they have no plans to cut rates in the near term.

Like is said earlier, you're great at snide remarks but you suck at comprehending facts.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Oerets

Pretty simple to understand the two opposing views on this and many other issues confronting our country today.

One side still believes their guy to be a honest successful businessman, good christian family man. A patriot with the countries well fair his top concern. Believe in Biden running a criminal organization and also feeble minded failing to see the contradictions there in.

So for them to believe what they are told with no independent thought is to be expected. When they already have shown to be easily swayed.

Compared to the other side who uses a open mind and experiences along with seeking multifaceted well educated based information. To then come to a decision on current events.

On the contrary, many of us believe that there are few if any decent humans to be found inside the DC beltway, and most of the folks inside that little beltway bubble could care less what you or I think.

[Oerets]

Originally Posted by whell

On the contrary, many of us believe that there are few if any decent humans to be found inside the DC beltway, and most of the folks inside that little beltway bubble could care less what you or I think.

Kinda proved my point with this reply.

When one party only it seems answer to the issues facing our country is simply put, tear it all down! Without having any solutions other then getting rid of anything from the other side as all bad and needs to be gone now! Again now solutions, well maybe tax cuts for the rich......

Then the other side seems to have passed healthcare reform the country now enjoys. Brought back our economy and rebuilding our infrastructure. Trying to pass environmental legislation in the hopes of helping the planet. Also trying to pass tax reforms to benefit the majority of citizens. All issues to benefit the citizens of this country.

[Chicks]

Originally Posted by whell

On the contrary, many of us believe that there are few if any decent Repubes to be found inside the DC beltway, and most of the Repubes inside that little beltway bubble could care less what you or I think.

Fixed it for you.

[Chicks]

Inflation hits lowest level since 2021, Fed's preferred gauge shows
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infla...133230834.html

"For the Fed, fresh signs of softer inflation and consumer demand confirm it is well positioned to remain on hold at the December policy meeting," EY senior economist Lydia Boussour wrote in a research note on Thursday. "We reiterate our long-standing view that the Fed’s tightening cycle is likely complete. With the Fed’s favored inflation gauge — core PCE inflation — likely falling below 2.5% in the spring, we expected the first Fed rate cut in June 2024."

Ahead of the print's release, markets had upped bets that the Fed was likely done hiking interest rates as economic data had recently showed inflation declining while the economy continued to grow.

The moves coincided with recent commentary from Fed officials that investors deciphered to mean the central bank could cut interest rates sooner than many had initially thought.

Thanks, Joe! Keep up the great work for the American people!