Putin Invades the Ukraine

[donquixote99]

The above assessment badly mixes up the means and ends of strategy, in a way especially highlighted by the too-wry comment "The US military might reasonably wish Russia to continue deploying military forces for Ukraine to destroy...." Simply put, destroying Russian forces is not a strategic objective. The root strategic objective is to defeat Russia, an event that ultimately happens in the minds of people in the Kremlin. The strategic objective is to get them to stop making war on the Ukraine, and even to abandon aggressive war as a tool of national policy. Destroying Russian forces is a MEANS to accomplish this. The hope should not be that we get to destroy ever more forces. It should be that Russia stop deploying forces in combat that results in death and destruction on both sides.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

The above assessment badly mixes up the means and ends of strategy, in a way especially highlighted by the too-wry comment "The US military might reasonably wish Russia to continue deploying military forces for Ukraine to destroy...." Simply put, destroying Russian forces is not a strategic objective. The root strategic objective is to defeat Russia, an event that ultimately happens in the minds of people in the Kremlin. The strategic objective is to get them to stop making war on the Ukraine, and even to abandon aggressive war as a tool of national policy. Destroying Russian forces is a MEANS to accomplish this. The hope should not be that we get to destroy ever more forces. It should be that Russia stop deploying forces in combat that results in death and destruction on both sides.

A distinction without a difference IMO. The only way "to get them to stop making war on the Ukraine, and even to abandon aggressive war as a tool of national policy" is to make Putin realize that his decimated forces and their second-rate equipment simply cannot achieve his desired strategic objectives.

[finnbow]

Anne Applebaum on what would have happened if Russia had achieved the strategic goals consistent with their original plans:

Had the Russian plan been carried out as it was written, Kyiv would have been conquered in just a few days. Zelensky, his wife, and his children would have been murdered by one of the hit squads that roamed the capital city. The Ukrainian state would have been taken over by the collaborators who had already chosen their Kyiv apartments. Then, city by city, region by region, the Russian army would have fought the remnants of the Ukrainian army until it finally conquered the entire country. Originally, the Russian general staff imagined that this victory would require six weeks.

Had all of that happened as planned, Ukraine would now be pockmarked with the concentration camps, torture chambers, and makeshift prisons that have been discovered in Bucha, Izyum, Kherson, and all the other territories temporarily occupied by Russia and liberated by the Ukrainian army. A generation of Ukrainian writers, artists, politicians, journalists, and civic leaders would already be buried in mass graves. Ukrainian books would have been removed from schools and libraries. The Ukrainian language would have been suppressed in all public spaces. Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian children would have been kidnapped and transported to Russia or trafficked farther around the world.

Russian soldiers, strengthened by their stunning victory, would already be on the borders of Poland, setting up new command posts, digging new trenches. NATO would be in chaos; the entire alliance would be forced to spend billions to prepare for the inevitable invasion of Warsaw, Vilnius, or Berlin. Millions of Ukrainian refugees would be living in camps all across Europe, with no prospect of ever returning home; the tide of sympathy that originally greeted them would have ebbed long ago, the money would be running out, the backlash under way. The Moldovan economy would have collapsed entirely; a pro-Russian government in Moldova would perhaps already be planning to incorporate that country into the emerging Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian federation that one Russian propagandist hailed, too early, on February 26.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...upport/672547/

[Chicks]

^^^^

... and the Orange buffoon, were he still in "elected" office, would be cheering his pal Pootin on, and planning hotel deals.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by Chicks

^^^^

... and the Orange buffoon, were he still in "elected" office, would be cheering his pal Pootin on, and planning hotel deals.

You recall this?

Trump calls Putin 'genius' and 'savvy' for Ukraine invasion.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

. It should be that Russia stop deploying forces in combat that results in death and destruction on both sides.

At least you record some empathy for the Ukrainian people. General Milley recognized the preponderance of Russia would exacerbate Ukrainian losses and tried to transmit
that to his side. The glee that Russians were dying was too much to recognize the Ukrainian grief.
Now the Russians are better organized and i believe
have redefined what winning to them implies.

[donquixote99]

Of course I have empathy for the Ukranian people. I even have some empathy for the Russian people (if not their leadership), even though those people support a lawless, atrocity-committing army. The Russians being to blame for this entire criminal war, and a demonstrated general threat to the world's peace, I sympathize with those wishing unlimited destruction on them. But as I said, I limit my own wishes to the minimum destruction necessary to achieve peace, through Russian defeat.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Of course I have empathy for the Ukranian people. I even have some empathy for the Russian people (if not their leadership), even though those people support a lawless, atrocity-committing army. The Russians being to blame for this entire criminal war, and a demonstrated general threat to the world's peace, I sympathize with those wishing unlimited destruction on them. But as I said, I limit my own wishes to the minimum destruction necessary to achieve peace, through Russian defeat.

DQ: Saw this article today and was surprised at how close it was to some of my thoughts.

https://foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/n...ng-war-ukraine

[nailer]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

DQ: Saw this article today and was surprised at how close it was to some of my thoughts.

https://foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/n...ng-war-ukraine

Excellent article. Thanks for posting.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

DQ: Saw this article today and was surprised at how close it was to some of my thoughts.

https://foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/n...ng-war-ukraine

I have very limited empathy (as in none) for the Russian people. Any argument empathizing with the Russian people is reminiscent of the Good German argument after WW2. Russia is waging an aggressive war replete with documented war crimes and it's individual Russians carrying out this campaign as directed by Putin. The Russian economy supports the ongoing conflict and the Russian people are involved, whether they're actively engaged in the fighting or not. Their inaction on the home front is tacit acceptance of the war and its wanton brutality.

Some Germans had the integrity to attempt the assassination of Hitler on multiple occasions. Unfortunately they failed. Those that made the attempt are correctly lauded for the effort. If past is prologue, Russians won't act. The costs are high, the rewards uncertain, the penalties for failure certain death. But it is a choice, and history will judge both Russia and its people for their actions and inaction. Even if Russians end up struggling mightily and find themselves pushing shopping carts of worthless Rubles through the muddy snows of Moscow to buy a loaf of black bread, they won't do shit.

Russian society at large is brutish, dishonest, profoundly corrupt and completely caught up in their history of lies, victimization and imperial glory. Having traveled and/or worked in over 60 countries, I've said (long before the war in Ukraine) that the only countries I've been to where the people are generally nasty and unfriendly with a persistent chip on their shoulders are Russia and Israel. Israel wasn't that way the first time I went there (mid 1980's) but was very much that way the second time (~2015). A significant and interesting difference between those times was the current number of Russians in Israel (~10% of total population) whereas there were essentially none the first time.