Florida Staring Down The Barrel of Ian

[bobabode]

Originally Posted by whell

Ignore what I posted - likely because it undercuts your chosen narrative - post your own references that support your narrative, and then spike the football with a smarmy comment. Nice job!

Low praise from the king of smarm on this forum.

[Rajoo]

Originally Posted by whell

Ignore what I posted - likely because it undercuts your chosen narrative - post your own references that support your narrative, and then spike the football with a smarmy comment. Nice job!

Why do you insist on doubling down on nonsense.

We lived there for years and went through several hurricanes, David was the worst I think and each time it was party time. A hurricane party is a two day affair with beer, beer and more beer. Back then, beer was only 3.2%, so a case did not last very long.

Just look at the devastation from hurricanes in the past decade or so. Puerto Rico twice, now Florida, NY/NJ before that. Unimaginable damage and some places not even safe to live anymore. So screw your data, I can make a given set of data look good, bad, indifferent or downright scary.

[Rajoo]

How is this for data?

Yet Ian already is shaping up to be the deadliest storm to pound Florida since 1935. State authorities have documented 72 deaths thus far — slightly under Hurricane Irma’s toll in 2017, according to the National Hurricane Center. County sheriffs have reported dozens more, pushing the total to at least 103. That makes Ian more fatal than Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Of course DeSantis is downplaying the severity (deaths) of the storm, so of course the echo chamber is pushing out disinformation. Eventually the deaths will be counted anyway. Trump wanted Covid-19 to be another flu virus, DeSantis wants hurricane Ian to be just another tropical storm.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...orida-victims/

[RickeyM]

Originally Posted by finnbow

It is not my narrative. It is that of the world scientific community while your narrative is that of talk radio.

Cut the guy some slack. He's been led to believe by his news sources that anything not presented by them is part of a narrative. A Democratic, etc. etc, narrative. They do love to toss that word around.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Rajoo

Why do you insist on doubling down on nonsense.

We lived there for years and went through several hurricanes, David was the worst I think and each time it was party time. A hurricane party is a two day affair with beer, beer and more beer. Back then, beer was only 3.2%, so a case did not last very long.

Just look at the devastation from hurricanes in the past decade or so. Puerto Rico twice, now Florida, NY/NJ before that. Unimaginable damage and some places not even safe to live anymore. So screw your data, I can make a given set of data look good, bad, indifferent or downright scary.

It's not "my data". It's NOAA's data.

You're making the case that your recent experiences - the last decade or so - are unique. They're not.

Hurricane Katrina was far and away the costliest storm in terms of damage to make landfall in the US. It may not have been the most powerful, however. That happened in 1935, when a Cat 5 storm hit the Florida Keys around Labor Day that year. Katrina isn't the most powerful Atlantic storm on record, either. That "honor" belongs to a hurricane that hit Cuba in 1924.

In fact, the data on such storms shows that the most powerful were not recent. The 5 most powerful on the list struck in 1955 or earlier.

Neither has the last 4 or 5 decades produced significantly greater named hurricanes that the historical average. The worst decades for frequency and severity of named storms rank 1 - 5 as follows:

1) 1941-1950
2) 1881-1890
3) 1891-1900
4) 1911-1920
5) 1871-1880

The most recent decade that made the top 10 was 2001-2010, which came in a #7, followed at # by 1851-1860.

While recent storms like Maria, Katrina and now Ian have been shattering to lives and economies, they are potentially amplified in their impact on you because they came to you live on CNN and other networks, and in your case, some personal experience. But in the context of history, they're not, unfortunately, unusual.

[Rajoo]

Again screw your data, I deal in facts.

Sydney posts wettest year on record — and it’s only October
More than 86 inches of rain have fallen in Sydney in just over nine months, with more rain set to come this week.

In an average year, Sydney’s most populous city receives 47.8 inches (1,213.4 mm) of rain.

And here in the Bay Area annual rainfall has been around 50% of normal. Last year a majority of the rainfall occurred with one major storm, so most of that water was lost due to run offs. Colorado river is now a trickle and Hoover dam is at 27% of capacity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clima...precipitation/

[GChief]

Here the sea level has risen 4" in the last 20yrs. Not due to erosion or "land sink". Tidal flooding of 200 yr old neighborhoods that only flooded during storms in now a daily reality.

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

It is not my narrative. It is that of the world scientific community while your narrative is that of talk radio.

Not at all. I simply believe that folks like these make a better argument.

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-...keptics-2009-7

[donquixote99]

Found a data set of hurricanes by year that also includes a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) per year. Sort of a sum of the power of all storms large and small that year.* Taking 10 years at a time and summing these values to a decade ACE score seemed to me to be a good way to smooth out weather variability and get at the climate trend. Here's the data by decade when I do that:

Decade___sum ACE
1851-1860 493.4
1861-1870 539
1871-1880 849
1881-1890 885.6
1891-1900 1205.3
1901-1910 720.8
1911-1920 589.6
1921-1930 765.3
1931-1940 1016.2
1941-1950 887
1951-1960 958.1
1961-1970 1109.1
1971-1980 739.3
1981-1990 726.6
1991-2000 1094
2001-2010 1347
2011-2020 1235.2

2001-2010 is by far the largest ACE sum of any decade. 2011-2020 is #2. All three decades from 1991-2020 have ACE sums exceeding 1000. There had never before been even two decades in a row exceeding 1000. This seems to indicate a trend of increasing hurricane energy, as is expected from increased heat input.

* Definition of ACE: "A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence."

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/...=northatlantic

[GChief]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Found a data set of hurricanes by year that also includes a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) per year. Sort of a sum of the power of all storms large and small that year.* Taking 10 years at a time and summing these values to a decade ACE score seemed to me to be a good way to smooth out weather variability and get at the climate trend. Here's the data by decade when I do that:

Decade___sum ACE
1851-1860 493.4
1861-1870 539
1871-1880 849
1881-1890 885.6
1891-1900 1205.3
1901-1910 720.8
1911-1920 589.6
1921-1930 765.3
1931-1940 1016.2
1941-1950 887
1951-1960 958.1
1961-1970 1109.1
1971-1980 739.3
1981-1990 726.6
1991-2000 1094
2001-2010 1347
2011-2020 1235.2

2001-2010 is by far the largest ACE sum of any decade. 2011-2020 is #2. All three decades from 1991-2020 have ACE sums exceeding 1000. There had never before been even two decades in a row exceeding 1000. This seems to indicate a trend of increasing hurricane energy, as is expected from increased heat input.

* Definition of ACE: "A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence."

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/...=northatlantic

Makes sense since the waters the hurricanes are traveling through are steadily increasing in temp. I was talking to a Sonar tech last Friday about the average thermoclines in the areas we operate in. The surface layers are warmer and deeper than when I was chasing Soviet boats off the east coast and in the Caribbean. FYI measurements are taken to 1500ft every 4 hours.