A Scary New World Order
May 3, 2014
David's key takeaway for investors is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to raise short-term interest rates for the rest of the decade. While the conventional wisdom is that the Fed will begin to hike its federal-funds rate target next year—from a 0%-to-0.25% floor, where it's been since late 2008—he sees the central bank stuck having to keep its key policy rate at the floor through 2019. (I will drop my annoying pedantry that the current decade runs through the end of 2020; it's incontrovertible, so that's enough.)
New data from the International Comparison Program of the World Bank show that, in real terms, China's economy may overtake the U.S.'s, not in 2019, as had been forecast, but possibly in 2014. This is in real terms, based on "purchasing power parity," which evens out differing costs across borders.
Based on purchasing power parity, China's gross domestic product is poised to top U.S. GDP in 2014, because prices are so much lower in the former. Moreover, India's economy tops Japan's on a PPP basis, according to the World Bank report. (For more on India's ascendancy, see the cover story.)
According to the Financial Times, China tried to suppress these findings. Along with becoming the world's largest economy come certain responsibilities the nation would rather not shoulder, the report quoted sources familiar with Chinese official views as saying. Beijing would rather see China continue to be portrayed as a poor country, based on per capita income, the article added.
Whether the Chinese own up to their status in the world economy is beside the point. The emerging markets' influence continues to increase inexorably. And, says Levy, that poses the main vulnerability to the world economy.
http://online.barrons.com/news/artic...mod=BOL_hp_mag