A very bad week for Obama indeed

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by Boreas

Battleground states (numbers in brackets are electoral votes):

Florida (29) -0.7%
Pennsylvania (20) +4.2%
Ohio (18) +0.8%
North Carolina (15) -3.0%
Virginia (13) +0.3%
Wisconsin (10) +5.0%
Missouri (10) -5.2%
Colorado (9) -0.5%
Iowa (6) +3.2%
Nevada (6) +0.7%

So, if the undecided "battleground states stay as they are, the electoral vote will be:

Obama (221 + 73 = 294)
Romney (181 + 63 = 244)

Oh, and the President would have to lose at minimum 2 of the 6 battleground states currently in his column for it to change the outcome.

John

[ebacon]

McCain/Obama went through similar poll rating gyrations during their debate period.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/fi...mccain-44.aspx

[mezz]

The big thing is that the Obama campaign's got nothing. They were running Big Bird ads this week. Romney has managed, just by having himself heard, to punch through the Obama campaign's portrail of him as unfit. That's over and continuing to campaign in that vein is going to hurt Obama now, not help him. What is he supposed to do now, defend his record???

His one shot is to be convincing and powerful in the coming debates and prove that his plans for going forward are better than Romney's. A tall order to fill when his plans for the future aren't much different from his failed plans (if you can even call that performance 'a plan'). I predict he'll try to come out on the attack and look even less presidential than he's managed to already.

Once people become ok with Romney, Obama's got nothing to sway them back with... and a lot of people have decided that they really are ok with Romney since last Tuesday.

[bobabode]

Originally Posted by ebacon

McCain/Obama went through similar poll rating gyrations during their debate period.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/fi...mccain-44.aspx

Maybe they learned. McCain might have won had they muzzled the Sarahcuda. Not much coming from Paul Ryan's bunker these days, hmmmm.
Tomorrow night will be fun, expectations are so high on the right for his performance I have to wonder, are the jitters setting in, yet?

[bobabode]

It's still almost four weeks away and R$R have peaked too early Mezz. Fugetaboutit, dood. Do you like his latest non pro-life stance?

[ebacon]

That's a fine analysis mezz, but it assumes that the remaining undecided voters understand the issues. They don't.

The people that feel strongly about issues are already locked in. The remainder will be persuaded by ads and Big Bird is as good a cobranding association for the Democrats as any. I would even make a gentlemans bet that undecided voters this late in the game are also least likely to vote. If true then that would make them statisticly less significant than decided voters.

That's just my opinion.

[ebacon]

Originally Posted by bobabode

It's still almost four weeks away and R$R have peaked too early Mezz. Fugetaboutit, dood. Do you like his latest non pro-life stance?

RU saying that R$R blew their wad...of debate zingers?

[ebacon]

Here's an interesting bit from Gallup during the Obama/McCain campaigns. Gallup had a "likely voter model" that took into account data suggesting that Republicans were more likely to vote.

I wonder how old that model is and if it has been updated. More specifically, I wonder if it takes into account traditional Republicans that the party has left behind. We might be small in numbers but when the split is down to 1% small numbers matter.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Ga...aditional.aspx

[BlueStreak]

If Obama doesn't come on strong in the next debate, he will lose it. There was so much bullshit flowing from Romneys mouth in the last one, Obama has the ammunition.

Question is; Will he use it?

Regards,
Dave

[BlueStreak]

Can Biden make Ryan look like the worthless, Ranian objectivist piece of absolute trash he is?

He could. But, again, the question is.....................

Regards,
Dave