The Biden Economy

[Rajoo]

Originally Posted by whell

Oh please. I'm insulted and lied about daily on this forum. The difference is I don't whine about it. I just expect it as part of the deal.

It's not me forecasting "doom and gloom", though I understand why you'd want to mischaracterize it that way. I'm posting information that competes with the folks here who what to focus on the trees and ignore the forest because they think it helps their chosen narrative.

Folks don't care about things like when the Fed's last rate hike was, or whether the GDP unexpectedly rose in a single calendar quarter. They care about the fact that they can afford less than last year because prices keep going up.

Here, this explains it pretty well:

Many Americans remain dour on the state of the economy, with the price of necessities like food and rent a lingering source of pain. Although it may seem like small consolation for cash-strapped consumers, economists have some good news. Really.

Forecasters predict that the steep drop in inflation since it peaked at more than 9% in June of 2022 will continue in 2024. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management's chief global strategist, projects "a very steady decline in inflation throughout the next year." That could lead the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate and push down borrowing costs for individuals and businesses.

Moderating inflation can be seen in recent government data, with the Consumer Price Index in September up 3.7% over the prior 12 months.

"This is not a one or two-month story — the economy is cooling, and that will put further downward pressure on prices," Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young, told CBS MoneyWatch.

To be sure, consumers don't experience the economy as annualized rates of change in prices. A gallon of gas or milk either costs more than it did a year go or less. With prices for some essential goods still significantly higher than when inflation began surging in early 2020, it may be no surprise that half of the respondents to a Bankrate survey this week described their financial situation as worsening since the last presidential election in 2020.

Worries about high prices also had one gauge of U.S. consumer confidence sinking to a five-month low in October, data released at the end of the month by the Conference Board showed.

"Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular," Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. "Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates."

That's why I'm saying that from most folks' perspective, this ain't over. And it won't be for a while.

That's also why I look at posts like this and just laugh:

https://www.politicalchat.org/showpo...&postcount=597

When y'all post crap like that, it just shows either just how out of touch with reality some of you are, or that you choose to ignore reality if you think it'll help you score a debate point. Most folks absolutely don't feel like today's economy is akin to a rocket blasting off. And if you think they do, you're as out of touch as the political cartoonist who created it.

I just highlighted a few of your points and they are not facts but peoples feelings. And you want to base the health and strength of peoples feelings?
Come on man, you should take up preaching, that's where you will find the really gullible fools, not here.

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

Your long-winded rants are a easily-recognized and telltale sign that you've lost the argument.

And your barb about me, rather than the substance of my post, are a telltale sign that you have no reasoned response to the facts presented.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Rajoo

I just highlighted a few of your points and they are not facts but peoples feelings. And you want to base the health and strength of peoples feelings?
Come on man, you should take up preaching, that's where you will find the really gullible fools, not here.

So, let me get this straight:

You're saying that data from on-going surveys such as the U of M consumer sentiment survey, The Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Survey, or the OECD's Consumer Confidence Index are to simply be ignored because they reflect "people's feelings"?

Damn, you better tell that to the folks at the Federal Reserve right away, 'cuz they're certainly keeping track of that type of data. Are the folks at the Fed the "really gullible fools" that you're referring to?

Or maybe Finn is one of those "really gullible fools? Above, Finn quoted from Investopedia, and it looks like Investopedia - gullible fools that they are - tracks that data as well.

The folks at CNN are gullible fools too?

And the folks at US News and World Report?

And Bloomberg?

And the left's favorite economist, the often wrong Paul Krugman? Lately, Paul doesn't like such indices much because he says they've become "too political", especially when the results don't flatter the Biden administration.

The fact is, my misinformed friend, that economists, even fraudulent ones like Krugman, use the results of such surveys as data points when trying to understand where the economy might be heading.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

If Whell's criminal Dear Leader was still mismanaging the economy, you can bet he'd be praising how great things are (it would be a complete disaster, of course - thankfully, we have Joe in the WH).

Prices are going down. Here's where you can see the difference.
https://news.yahoo.com/prices-going-...212958263.html

Good Lord Chicket! Did you even bother to read the article you posted? As I often have to do, let me help you out a bit. From your article:

According to Nerdwallet, citing data released in November by the Department of Labor, the "consumer price index — a proxy for inflation — remained flat from September to October, at 3.2%

That's a lot of words to say the CPI went up 3.2 percent from Sept to Oct. When inflation goes up, that means that costs are going up.

Also:

"Here's the tough reality: Even if inflation continues to ease up, prices may not necessarily fall to where they once were. "Inflation falls ... but prices don't come down. They're just going up at a slower rate. "

They could have boiled the entire article down to this paragraph.

But thank you for taking the opportunity to remind Finn and Rajoo that there's still inflation out there.

[Chicks]

Originally Posted by whell

Good Lord Chicket! Did you even bother to read the article you posted? As I often have to do, let me help you out a bit. From your article:

According to Nerdwallet, citing data released in November by the Department of Labor, the "consumer price index — a proxy for inflation — remained flat from September to October, at 3.2%

That's a lot of words to say the CPI went up 3.2 percent from Sept to Oct. When inflation goes up, that means that costs are going up.

Also:

"Here's the tough reality: Even if inflation continues to ease up, prices may not necessarily fall to where they once were. "Inflation falls ... but prices don't come down. They're just going up at a slower rate. "

They could have boiled the entire article down to this paragraph.

But thank you for taking the opportunity to remind Finn and Rajoo that there's still inflation out there.

ROFL. Of course you cherry pick the parts that fit your idiot narrative. You're such a tool.

Meanwhile, from folks who, unlike you, actually know what they're talking about...

The global economy will perform better than many expect in 2024
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelli...t-in-2024.html

[Chicks]

Oh, BTW, the S&P 500 is up more than 21% so far this year, with a probable Santa Claus rally yet to come. An excellent year for investors; you would think the MAGAMorons would look at their 401Ks or IRAs and smile bigly, but Faux "News" is still selling Whell's gloom and doom.

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns/ytd

[Rajoo]

Originally Posted by whell

So, let me get this straight:

You're saying that data from on-going surveys such as the U of M consumer sentiment survey, The Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Survey, or the OECD's Consumer Confidence Index are to simply be ignored because they reflect "people's feelings"?

Damn, you better tell that to the folks at the Federal Reserve right away, 'cuz they're certainly keeping track of that type of data. Are the folks at the Fed the "really gullible fools" that you're referring to?

Or maybe Finn is one of those "really gullible fools? Above, Finn quoted from Investopedia, and it looks like Investopedia - gullible fools that they are - tracks that data as well.

The folks at CNN are gullible fools too?

And the folks at US News and World Report?

And Bloomberg?

And the left's favorite economist, the often wrong Paul Krugman? Lately, Paul doesn't like such indices much because he says they've become "too political", especially when the results don't flatter the Biden administration.

The fact is, my misinformed friend, that economists, even fraudulent ones like Krugman, use the results of such surveys as data points when trying to understand where the economy might be heading.

Yes.

Yet you don't buy the hard numbers like Chicks has posted about the S&P.
Looks like you are hunting for bad economic news, does not matter from whom or where.

I am a long term businessman and I may have a very different perspective than you because first and foremost I have a payroll to meet and I don't stick my finger out checking economic winds or rely on peoples feelings before making decisions. I rely on hard facts, money doesn't lie, people do.

[Chicks]

Should we believe Americans when they say the economy is bad?
In an increasingly polarised and performative society, vibes are now often trumping objective reality
https://www.ft.com/content/9c7931aa-...1-d7ebd54b0f47

The most striking response from our survey concerned the sense of longer-term progress. Large majorities of Americans think the median income today pays for a worse lifestyle than 30 years ago (demonstrably false), and that poverty is higher than it was a generation ago (it has plummeted). One particularly revealing statistic is that Americans’ assessment of their own financial situation has barely budged over the past five years, but their rating of the national economy has worsened steeply. It seems they have decided that the vibes are bad, so things must be going badly for most other people, even if not for themselves.

Political affiliation is also key to understanding how economic sentiments are separating from economic reality in the US. One question from the Michigan survey asks whether people think now is a good time to buy big household items. When the pandemic hit, Democrats and Republicans alike moved sharply towards “not a good time to buy”. But just months later, when Joe Biden won the presidential election — while Covid-19 still raged — Democrats suddenly declared conditions ripe for purchases of new fridge-freezers. Republicans did not.

Simplest explanation: The morons of Whell's World get their "reality" from Faux "News", which refuses to acknowledge just how great this economy is, and how much better off everyone is. Fools like Whell believe this nonsense, despite all evidence to the contrary.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

ROFL. Of course you cherry pick the parts that fit your idiot narrative. You're such a tool.

YOU posted the article, genius. All I did was quote from it. If I got it wrong, please enlighted me with specifics.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Rajoo

Yes.

Yet you don't buy the hard numbers like Chicks has posted about the S&P.

I never said a word about articles regarding the S&P, so knock off the straw man shit. I didn't say a word because I didn't need to. The performance of the S&P in 2023 is great, but the S&P underperformed in 2022. Seems like the table was set in 2022 for a rebound of the S&P in 2023.

So, you want to criticize me for failing to be moved to comment on the 2023 S&P numbers? You're welcome to do that, but I don't really care because I don't recall you yapping about the S&P's 2022 underperformance.

And as far as Chickie's comments in his S&P post:

An excellent year for investors; you would think the MAGAMorons would look at their 401Ks or IRAs and smile bigly, but Faux "News" is still selling Whell's gloom and doom.

Right, so last year when the S&P underperformed, was Chickie looking at his retirement accounts and crying? Was he posting here about how upset he was at Biden? No, because:

1) Biden has as much to do with the 2023 rise in the S&P as he did with the 2022 drop, which is to say almost nothing.
2) He's a tool grabbing at anything that he thinks will support his lame arguments.