Trumps is in!

[Pio1980]

Make America grate, again.

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[finnbow]

Here's an interesting take on Trump from John Oliver. Highly recommended.

https://youtu.be/DnpO_RTSNmQ?t=5

[Rajoo]

I guess a Trump-Hillary general election is on the horizon,. I cannot get over the fact that Trump is being selected from a wide open primary system whereas Hillary' foregone selection is a result of a rigged primary system. GOP could not rig the process whereas the DNC could and wonder why Hillary is not trusted?

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by Boreas

For a change, there's something interesting here.

The pollsters asked the question of whether voters would support their party's candidate it it wasn't their first choice.

Republicans:

If the nominee is Cruz, 20% would probably not and 11% would definitely not support him. (total 31%)

If the nominee is Rubio, 17% would probably not and 12% would definitely not support him. (total 29%)

If the nominee is Trump, 13% would probably not and 35% would definitely not support him. (total 48%)

So if, as seems likely, Trump is the nominee, turnout for Republicans is likely to take a huge hit. In terms of the "definitely not" side of things, about three times as many Republicans say they would refuse to vote for Trump as say they would refuse to vote for another candidate. And nearly half are at least unlikely to support Trump.

Democrats:

If the nominee is Sanders, 18% would probably not and 6% would definitely not support him. (total 24%)

If the nominee is Clinton, 13% would probably not and 20% would definitely not support her. (total 33%)

Hillary is suffering from the same "disease" as Trump. If she's the Democratic nominee, three times as many voters will refuse to support her as would refuse to support Bernie. But, overall, more Bernie supporters would vote for Hillary than Rubio or Cruz supporters would support Trump. But, in Hillary's case, the actual percentage is a lot lower than Trump's.

So, there's a good chance that a Hillary/Trump election will depress turnout for both parties but a Sanders/Trump contest will depress Republican turnout while having a significantly smaller negative effect on Democratic turnout.

If Clinton is the nominee. The anti Trumps Repubs will turn out for Trump.

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

If Clinton is the nominee. The anti Trumps Repubs will turn out for Trump.

Where's you evidence for that? Can you cite a poll reflecting that? Anything other than your own personal prejucices?

As it stands now, the likelihood of a Clinton/Trump contest is approaching that of a foregone conclusion. That being the case, those Republicans who say they won't support Trump under any circumstances, have factored Clinton into the equation and they still won't vote for the guy.

[MrPots]

Heh....so he's a shitty lifestyle brand..... LOL

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by Boreas

Where's you evidence for that? Can you cite a poll reflecting that? Anything other than your own personal prejucices?

As it stands now, the likelihood of a Clinton/Trump contest is approaching that of a foregone conclusion. That being the case, those Republicans who say they won't support Trump under any circumstances, have factored Clinton into the equation and they still won't vote for the guy.

The anti Clinton strain in Repug camp is extremely powerful: worst if a Supreme court spot is at stake. No one can poll accurately so far ahead.

[Rajoo]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

If Clinton is the nominee. The anti Trumps Repubs will turn out for Trump.

I am not so sure. So far Trump has been counter punching direct attacks until last week when Rubio started calling him a con artist and the name fits Trump like a glove. Trent Lott commented that Rubio cannot even show himself at the convention after this. So what will his supporters do? Will Cruz lineup behind Trump? Probably not. So at best Trump will pick up some of Carson's supporters and a smaller fraction from Bush & Kasich.

In the interim Hillary's super PAC's can and will come out in full force attacking Trump while Trump has nothing to fight back with unless he really decides to spend his own money seriously. I doubt he will do that. Either he really is not worth a lot, not the type to spend his own money (his MO) or he will know he is beat. He probably knows the Hillary backers well and will realize he does not stand a chance.

The bigger fear is that a lot of Bernie's supporters are not gong switch to Hillary; $40 Million+ raised in February when it's beginning to look like a lost cause.

[Ike Bana]

Originally Posted by BeamOn

I guess a Trump-Hillary general election is on the horizon,. I cannot get over the fact that Trump is being selected from a wide open primary system whereas Hillary' foregone selection is a result of a rigged primary system. GOP could not rig the process whereas the DNC could and wonder why Hillary is not trusted?

Well...then we have 8 years of Obama having been selected through the same rigged primary system. Because there was the same size batch of superdelegates in 2008 as there are this year. Apparently in 2008 Hillary lost the nomination through The same rigged primary system. The Bernie-ites have a convenient memory lapse.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by Ike Bana

Well...then we have 8 years of Obama having been selected through the same rigged primary system. Because there was the same size batch of superdelegates in 2008 as there are this year.

Shit! The Repubs have a more democratic system?