Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Joad
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For a change, there's something interesting here.
The pollsters asked the question of whether voters would support their party's candidate it it wasn't their first choice.
Republicans:
If the nominee is Cruz, 20% would probably not and 11% would definitely not support him. (total 31%)
If the nominee is Rubio, 17% would probably not and 12% would definitely not support him. (total 29%)
If the nominee is Trump, 13% would probably not and 35% would definitely not support him. (total 48%)
So if, as seems likely, Trump is the nominee, turnout for Republicans is likely to take a huge hit. In terms of the "definitely not" side of things, about three times as many Republicans say they would refuse to vote for Trump as say they would refuse to vote for another candidate. And nearly half are at least unlikely to support Trump.
Democrats:
If the nominee is Sanders, 18% would probably not and 6% would definitely not support him. (total 24%)
If the nominee is Clinton, 13% would probably not and 20% would definitely not support her. (total 33%)
Hillary is suffering from the same "disease" as Trump. If she's the Democratic nominee, three times as many voters will refuse to support her as would refuse to support Bernie. But, overall, more Bernie supporters would vote for Hillary than Rubio or Cruz supporters would support Trump. But, in Hillary's case, the actual percentage is a lot lower than Trump's.
So, there's a good chance that a Hillary/Trump election will depress turnout for both parties but a Sanders/Trump contest will depress Republican turnout while having a significantly smaller negative effect on Democratic turnout.