Hillary For President

[bobabode]

Originally Posted by Tom Joad

Actually the one Bob cited is in the three that I linked to.

All I'm saying is you need more than one post debate poll.

Hillary may very well have gotten a bump from the debate, but it's too soon to know for sure.

Did you see Bernie tonight on Bill Maher's show? He's looking strong for an old Jewish cat from Brooklyn.

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by bobabode

Did you see Bernie tonight on Bill Maher's show? He's looking strong for an old Jewish cat from Brooklyn.

Brooklyn!

Cool, as soon as he is sworn into office I'm going to start lobbying him to issue an executive order to bring the Dodgers back!

[bobabode]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-n...015-story.html

One of many reasons 'La Hillary' will trounce any Republican in the general election.

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by bobabode

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-n...015-story.html

One of many reasons 'La Hillary' will trounce any Republican in the general election.

So, let's think about this. What does Julian Castro as the VP candidate do for Hillary's chances?

"Why, get her the Latino vote," you say.

Well, probably but what does that get her? Sadly, thanks to the Electoral College, the election is all about the states carried, not the popular vote. So, what states can Castro win for her that she couldn't have won without him?

Well, let's see. I suppose that that would be states with a large Latino population. Pretty obvious, really, but it would also have to be red states or swing states with large Latino populations.

Here's a list.

Arizona 30.2%
Colorado 21.0%
Florida 23.2%
Nevada 27.3%
New Mexico 47%
Texas 38.2%

No other red or swing states have sizable Hispanic populations. The only other state with a large Hispanic population, say in excess of 20%, is California (38.2%) and that is deep, deep blue.

So, what do you think? Which of these red/swing states can Castro flip? Will it make a difference?

[icenine]

You are not looking at it the right way....any of the Castros would give her a firewall in purple states like Ohio...the enthusiasm would bring out a larger proportion of the Hispanic vote where it would make it impossible for a GOP candidate to win period. The key is getting them out to vote. That is how Obama did it. You have to make it impossible for the GOP to build any sort of coalition by slicing into the pieces of the electorate. If she picks a boring white guy, or someone not really exciting...that part of the electorate might stay home.

A exciting choice makes it impossible for the GOP rest easy. Oh Rubio may speak Spanish but his policies will not resonate because they are anti-immigrant. He ran away from his own bill. Hillary will crush him with that.

[Boreas]

You mentioned Ohio where the enthusiasm you predict would infect 3.3% of the population. Do you really think that's likely to make the difference?

[icenine]

That is around 400,000 people. In a state like Ohio that is significant especially if the race is very close.

Plus Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico would be much easier for Hillary.

I doubt if picking Sanders as VP will happen. She has to shore up a wide constituency.

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by icenine

That is around 400,000 people. In a state like Ohio that is significant especially if the race is very close.

Plus Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico would be much easier for Hillary.

I doubt if picking Sanders as VP will happen. She has to shore up a wide constituency.

It's more like 350,000 people but probably only around 150,000 of voting age. Now that we have that number, how many of them would have voted for Hillary if her running mate wasn't Hispanic? I think most.

Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico all went for Obama/Biden in 2012. While Castro might make a Democratic repeat in 2016 more likely, it's not unlikely without him.

[Dondilion]

In many ways liberals and right wingers are the same.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by Boreas

You mentioned Ohio where the enthusiasm you predict would infect 3.3% of the population. Do you really think that's likely to make the difference?

It can be very close in swing states.