"Here's How You Get Ebola"

[bobabode]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

From the CDC: Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015



My estimate was a quick and dirty, limited-data effort, but I seem to be in the same awful ballpark as these experts.

The CDC paper goes on to outline, in its conclusion, what interventions would be effective to keep this from happening:



Building ETUs is what the Marines are in Liberia to do, but I question whether sufficient units can be built fast enough to get in front of the epidemic. The fallback identified, reducing risk in home or community settings, will not be as effective. But it's what I said would be the foundation of a doable strategy in message 80, and it is the strategy now being implemented by Doctors Without Borders: http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org...erway-monrovia

Right. Thanks for making my point Don. There is an ongoing and increasing effort and I believe they will get out in front of it.

[hillbilly]

And the fact that folks travel around so much here in the US, cases could get started in cities from coast to coast. Think subways that have train cars jam packed. Someone develope a fever with it..

[bobabode]

Originally Posted by hillbilly

And the fact that folks travel around so much here in the US, cases could get started in cities from coast to coast. Think subways that have train cars jam packed. Someone develope a fever with it..

sigh - believe what you will bro. I have an old copy of "The Stand' around here too.

Here's the info on that near earth asteroid everyone on the news was losing their sh!t over. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis\

If something was going to sterilize the surface of the planet, I probably wouldn't want advance notice, fwiw. Surf's up!

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by bobabode

Right. Thanks for making my point Don. There is an ongoing and increasing effort and I believe they will get out in front of it.

I don't think I or the CDC made the point you are claiming, but I hope your faith turns out to be justified.

[icenine]

Originally Posted by bobabode

Why afraid now Robbin?

I am just saying that we do not really have a handle on this crisis should it escalate. Here is a quote from an article:

Every emergency room needs to be prepared to isolate and take infection control precautions, because no one can control where an Ebola patient might show up, said Dr. Dennis Maki, University of Wisconsin-Madison infectious disease spe************************t and former head of hospital infection control.

However, only large hospitals such as those affiliated with major universities truly have the equipment and manpower to deal with Ebola correctly, Maki said.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/1...n_5976426.html

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Assuming nothing changes from what got us from 1 to 10,000, we'll be at 1,000,000 around mid-Feb of next year.

Increasing by 100X every four months?


Assuming that is continues to grow exponentially at that rate it will put us at a 100 million by mid-June. Extrapolating from there should put us into a Stephen King's "The Stand" scenario by the 4th of July.

[nailer]

Anyone who thinks the CDC isn't presenting, even slanting and witholding, information in order to keep the populace calm is a fool.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by Tom Joad

Increasing by 100X every four months?


Assuming that is continues to grow exponentially at that rate it will put us at a 100 million by mid-June. Extrapolating from there should put us into a Stephen King's "The Stand" scenario by the 4th of July.

It's much worse that increasing by a constant number every [period of time]. In the countries where it is epidemic, it is doubling every 20-30 days. That is indeed the stuff Stephen King nightmares are made of.

I don't think that sceneario happens in the US because of higher cleanliness standards with universal running water in homes, the relegation of handling of dead bodies to professionals, and an incomparably denser medical infrastructure. We should be able to quickly detect and tamp down outbreaks here.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

From the CDC: Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015



My estimate was a quick and dirty, limited-data effort, but I seem to be in the same awful ballpark as these experts.

The CDC paper goes on to outline, in its conclusion, what interventions would be effective to keep this from happening:



Building ETUs is what the Marines are in Liberia to do, but I question whether sufficient units can be built fast enough to get in front of the epidemic. The fallback identified, reducing risk in home or community settings, will not be as effective. But it's what I said would be the foundation of a doable strategy in message 80, and it is the strategy now being implemented by Doctors Without Borders: http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org...erway-monrovia

Originally Posted by nailer

Anyone who thinks the CDC isn't presenting, even slanting and witholding, information in order to keep the populace calm is a fool.

The CDC paper I quote above, which is probably what got the Marines sent to Liberia, is publicly available. But it isn't exactly highlighted if you go in the 'front door' of the CDC webside. I found the link to it on Wikipedia, actually....

[icenine]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

It's much worse that increasing by a constant number every [period of time]. In the countries where it is epidemic, it is doubling every 20-30 days. That is indeed the stuff Stephen King nightmares are made of.

I don't think that sceneario happens in the US because of higher cleanliness standards with universal running water in homes, the relegation of handling of dead bodies to professionals, and an incomparably denser medical infrastructure. We should be able to quickly detect and tamp down outbreaks here.

Do not underestimate the impact of a localized outbreak of 50-100 patients on a hospital system. Hard choices will have to be made on who to treat. The impact on an ICU ward would be immense.