Putin Invades the Ukraine

[donquixote99]

But historically, a 'proper humiliation' has generally required a much more thorough defeat than is likely in this case. See Germany, arguably 'improperly humiliated' at end of WWI, but properly at end of WWII.

[Dondilion]

Here is the rub...Humiliation in terms of normal kinetic warfare. It's a gamble.

In the meantime the rush to humiliate has exposed the fragility of the world economic system. It looks like there is likely to be only one winner...China.

Now watch China play lockdown.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

But historically, a 'proper humiliation' has generally required a much more thorough defeat than is likely in this case. See Germany, arguably 'improperly humiliated' at end of WWI, but properly at end of WWII.

It was the Versailles Treaty that humiliated them, not the thoroughness of their defeat.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Here is the rub...Humiliation in terms of normal kinetic warfare. It's a gamble.

In the meantime the rush to humiliate has exposed the fragility of the world economic system. It looks like there is likely to be only one winner...China.

Now watch China play lockdown.

In the nuclear age, engaging in warfare with a nuclear power is always a gamble. The impacts of this war on the world's economic system has nothing to do with a "rush to humiliate" Russia. If Russia doesn't want to be humiliated, Putin can quit now and tell his people that he somehow won. They'll likely believe it (as might you FWIW).

Here's another take on the matter:

The war in Ukraine has exposed the fundamental failure of Western audiences to appreciate the true nature of modern Russia. Many international observers still assume Russia is a rational actor and believe policies of appeasement can bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end. Nothing could be further from the truth.

In reality, neither bleeding heart liberals nor diehard realists truly understand Vladimir Putin. They fail to recognize that he is an authoritarian kleptocrat who does not care about Russia’s national interest and is focused instead on his power and wealth. He hides this self-interest behind a façade of revisionist Russian nationalism that helps secure popular support for his criminal rule.

As I have argued in my book, “Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy,” Putin’s personal politics combine authoritarianism and kleptocracy. He needs war not to make Russia great again but to increase his popularity and justify his repressive domestic policies. Putin also fears the rise of a democratic Ukraine and views the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration as an existential threat to his own authoritarian regime.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...in-putinology/

[Pio1980]

China humiliates Putin as ex-official says 'only matter of time' before Russian defeat

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...tin-latest/amp

[Pio1980]

Putin will be in a sanatorium and out of power by 2023, a former British intelligence chief predicts

https://www.businessinsider.com/puti...6-chief-2022-5

[Dondilion]

The Blame Game begins as the situation in the Donbas becomes clear.

https://nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/po...elligence.html

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

The Blame Game begins as the situation in the Donbas becomes clear.

https://nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/po...elligence.html

The article was not about blame-shifting. It simply says we have historically had better intelligence on Russia than Ukraine. Not exactly a news flash. As for the situation in Donbas being clear (to you), maybe you should share your infinite wisdom with US intelligence, comrade.

[donquixote99]

What is clear exactly? You are very vague here.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

What is clear exactly? You are very vague here.

That Ukraine is on the verge of losing the Donbas despite attempts to soften this picture. Notice the use of evacuation instead of surrender with respect to Mariupol.

The linked New York Times article does not make sense. The US is handing over billions of dollars worth of equipment to an army that is refusing to supply intelligence to the US.

It appears to me an attempt to throw Ukraine under the bus.
How to explain to politicians and the general public the lost of the Donbas and other areas in the east of Ukraine?