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Now would be a terrible time for Trump to try a rebellion. Biden is unquestionably President and the Army will undoubtedly be loyal to him. As you say, the Guard and Army would dust away any militia types at any place they tried to hold, without breaking a sweat. The only concern would be to take care to chase away the rebels without it looking like an unnecessary massacre.
Trump would not have they power to defy the system at this minute. Surrendering and going through the arraignment is kicking the can down the road, which he can afford to do. He does not face custody at this point.
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