I see data that is leading me to place more emphasis on the economic factor. I personally am pretty well insulated from inflation's bite, which seems to have kept me from understanding the feelings of many others.
Robert Reich observes that after a political disaster, there is a raking over of the ashes of defeat, and everyone tries to do forensics and come up with the Lesson. A consensus on the Lesson will form, and this idea will be consequential. The column linked below gives Reich's proposal for the Lesson, which I think makes sense.
Here's a quick summary of Reich's take on some leading but mainly wrong candidates for the Lesson (everything in italics or quotes is from Reich's column.)
1. It was a total repudiation of the Democratic Party, a major realignment. "Rubbish." The country remains very closely split, the Democratic party remains competitive.
2. If the Dems want to win in the future, they have to move to the right.****"Wrong." Reich means this in the moral sense I think, calling on Democrats not to give up on "democracy, social justice, civil rights, and equal voting rights."
3. Republicans won because of misinformation and right-wing propaganda...[Democrats should] cultivate an equivalent media ecosystem that rivals what the right has built. "Partly true...Better messaging, yes. Lies and bigotry, no." Among other things, Reich calls for regulation, so "platforms achieve minimum standards of moderation and decency."
4. Republicans cheated.****"Putin tried," but no such evidence.
5. Harris ran a lousy campaign.****"Untrue. Harris ran an excellent campaign... Trump’s antics sucked most of the oxygen out of the political air."
6. Racism and misogyny. "Partly true."
And now, Reich's idea of the Lesson:
Here’s the real Lesson of the 2024 election:
"On Tuesday, according to exit polls, Americans voted mainly on the****economy —****and their votes reflected their class and level of education.
While the economy has improved over the last two years according to standard economic measures, most Americans without college degrees — that’s the majority — have not felt it.
In fact, most Americans without college degrees have not felt much economic improvement for four decades...."
Implicit in the argument are the implications that the Democratic leadership is, indeed, part of the elite, and as such is doing fine and has lost touch with the great economic grievance of the majority of Americans. Reich recommends a program of decidedly progressive economic reform.
"The Democratic Party should use this inflection point to shift ground — from being the party of well-off college graduates, big corporations, “never-Tumpers” like Dick Cheney, and vacuous “centrism” — to an anti-establishment party ready to shake up the system on behalf of the vast majority of Americans."
By all means, see the details of Reich's recommendations in his essay:
https://open.substack.com/pub/robert...m_medium=email