[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

You seem to be invested in putting words in my mouth for the sole purpose to slaying a straw man. Did I say the current economic situation was all Biden's fault? Nope. Did he play a role in revving up inflation? Sure he did, your denial and claims of "bullshit" notwithstanding. If said here before that the knee-jerk reactions of Repubs during COVID - which manifested during an election year - also played a significant role.



More straw man slaying in evidence above. Doesn't it trouble you that this is the only method you have of "winning" arguments?



"The price of goods rose a negligible...."



Quoting from the official source of disinformation, I see. You cherry-pick the facts, but while you were crowing about a single calendar quarter of economic activity, you miss the big picture.



A key factor in the slowdown is that the OECD expects the world’s two biggest economies, the United States and China, to decelerate next year. The U.S. economy is forecast to expand just 1.5% in 2024, from 2.4% in 2023, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases — 11 of them since March 2022 — continue to restrain growth. The Fed’s higher rates have made borrowing far more expensive for consumers and businesses and, in the process, have helped slow inflation from its four-decade peak in 2022. The OECD foresees U.S. inflation dropping from 3.9% this year to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, just above the Fed’s 2% target level.



Now, this is the forecast - I know you say you hate those even though you often post data from forecasts - by the OECD folks. Doesn't mean that it will come to pass. The big picture is that the economy is in a pretty fragile place right now. To deny that is to walk around with your head up your ass. You claiming in an earlier post that we'd already achieved "the elusive soft-landing" seems to indicate that's exactly where your head is.



The Fed's rate increases may be working to reduce inflation, but the expected result is at minimum a period of slow growth. Folks running through their COVID money and the natural slowdown in expected spending when that happens will also play a role.



Like I said earlier, the full story on this economy hasn't been written yet.

Originally Posted by whell

Oh please. I'm insulted and lied about daily on this forum. The difference is I don't whine about it. I just expect it as part of the deal.



It's not me forecasting "doom and gloom", though I understand why you'd want to mischaracterize it that way. I'm posting information that competes with the folks here who what to focus on the trees and ignore the forest because they think it helps their chosen narrative.



Folks don't care about things like when the Fed's last rate hike was, or whether the GDP unexpectedly rose in a single calendar quarter. They care about the fact that they can afford less than last year because prices keep going up.



Here, this explains it pretty well:



Many Americans remain dour on the state of the economy, with the price of necessities like food and rent a lingering source of pain. Although it may seem like small consolation for cash-strapped consumers, economists have some good news. Really.



Forecasters predict that the steep drop in inflation since it peaked at more than 9% in June of 2022 will continue in 2024. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management's chief global strategist, projects "a very steady decline in inflation throughout the next year." That could lead the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate and push down borrowing costs for individuals and businesses.



Moderating inflation can be seen in recent government data, with the Consumer Price Index in September up 3.7% over the prior 12 months.



"This is not a one or two-month story — the economy is cooling, and that will put further downward pressure on prices," Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young, told CBS MoneyWatch.



To be sure, consumers don't experience the economy as annualized rates of change in prices. A gallon of gas or milk either costs more than it did a year go or less. With prices for some essential goods still significantly higher than when inflation began surging in early 2020, it may be no surprise that half of the respondents to a Bankrate survey this week described their financial situation as worsening since the last presidential election in 2020.



Worries about high prices also had one gauge of U.S. consumer confidence sinking to a five-month low in October, data released at the end of the month by the Conference Board showed.



"Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular," Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. "Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates."



That's why I'm saying that from most folks' perspective, this ain't over. And it won't be for a while.



That's also why I look at posts like this and just laugh:



https://www.politicalchat.org/showpo...&postcount=597



When y'all post crap like that, it just shows either just how out of touch with reality some of you are, or that you choose to ignore reality if you think it'll help you score a debate point. Most folks absolutely don't feel like today's economy is akin to a rocket blasting off. And if you think they do, you're as out of touch as the political cartoonist who created it.

Your long-winded rants are a easily-recognized and telltale sign that you've lost the argument.