Quote:
Originally Posted by whell
Putin is interested in resurrecting the old Soviet-era "sphere of influence". The West is doing the right thing by making it hard for Putin to make headway in Ukraine. With the Ukrainians showing their will to fight, and providing them with modern weapons to defend themselves, Putin may well be denied Ukraine.
However, Putin is also not rational. There is no strategic benefit to the US to making Ukraine a NATO member. If Western European NATO members were pushing hard for it, it might be a different matter. But they're not.
So, if the US lead an effort to push for NATO membership for Ukraine, the US would be left with also having to take the lead in standing up any NATO facilities in Ukraine. No thanks.
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Putin is interested in resurrecting the old Soviet-era "sphere of influence".
Yes!
Putin may well be denied Ukraine.
Putin does not want Ukraine. He could never control Western Ukraine which is Polish-centric. The aim it seems now is to occupy in mass Eastern Russified Ukraine.
Several factors make this seems possible:
There is a raging debate in Biden admin how to achieve an off ramp.
Why off ramp:- the main objective of the Ukraine shenanigans has not been achieved. That is the economic collapse of Russia leading to Balkanization.
Russia seemed to have weathered the sanction storms and benefitted immensely from Western harassed oligarchs who no longer can invest in London, New York, Paris, Miami etc.
Russia is adapting to a war economy.
The destabilization of Ukraine's neighbors due to the huge influx of refugees; especially in Poland.
The possibility of accidental WW111 conflict over Ukraine, a country that has no vital strategic interest to US.
the re-election of Erdogan.
China gains and emerges the winner.