From the CDC:
Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015
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By September 30, 2014, without additional interventions and using the described likelihood of going to an ETU, approximately 670 daily beds in use (1,700 corrected for underreporting) will be needed in Liberia and Sierra Leone (Figure 2). Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting) [from paragraph 2 in 'Results' section, emphasis added]
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My estimate was a quick and dirty, limited-data effort, but I seem to be in the same awful ballpark as these experts.
The CDC paper goes on to outline, in its conclusion, what interventions would be effective to keep this from happening:
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Ensuring that approximately 70% of the patients are in ETUs [Ebola Treatment Units] is necessary, or, when ETUs are at capacity, that they are at home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed).
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Building ETUs is what the Marines are in Liberia to do, but I question whether sufficient units can be built fast enough to get in front of the epidemic. The fallback identified, reducing risk in home or community settings, will not be as effective. But it's what I said would be the foundation of a doable strategy in message 80, and it is the strategy now being implemented by Doctors Without Borders:
http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org...erway-monrovia