near term extinction
 

Hey Folks,
I have been reading A LOT on global warming, feedback loops, CO2 measurements, and methane plumes. I am convinced that life on this planet will end in the next 35 years. I am sorry to be a doomsdayer, but I thought you folks might wan to really take some time to read up on this stuff.

Look up Guy McPherson, Nature bats last, and so on. I know that as of today, I am going to start rearranging my priorities and my activities.


I wish you all the best, and remember, we still have today and each other.

Mark

I'll be dead by then.

On the plus side, prepping is useless!

Pete

Prepping is living well in the present and leaving something for tomorrow regardless.

Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk

Not even gonna stock up on canned goods?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZTGppUiV38

Hopefully, after seeing the hellish existence my parents had much past 80, I will be as well.

Dave

Judging by my family genetics, 35 more years might be stretching it a bit
but is doable. :D

Looking back at the last 35 years what are the most dramatic changes?...cell phones!

I do not think there will be anything spectacular for the next 35. I doubt the
new pills will have less side effects.

Oh shit the terrorists might become more efficient. :eek:

Well, just think of all the money you could save on Spam in the intervening years.

I'm 67.

My plan is to live 43 more years and then be shot to death by a jealous husband at the age of 110.

There is this here VPI table local to me on BT. One more TT couldn't hurt.

I'd rather die in the saddle and leave her husband out of it.

35 years is all life folks. Humans will likely be gone 10-15 years sooner. I think we have about 20 years left. Maybe, if we are really lucky, we'll get 40, but doubtful. Also, it could be much sooner, depending on the change in the jet stream and the methane plumes that could occur. We could see DRASTIC changes in 10 years. Naysayers(or those of us who believe in error) will know for sure in about 5-7.

Look up the "bulb effect".

AT 83 my parents lived, on my mother's side, into their 90s. Dad would likely have made it well into his 90 but a botched surgery made that not possible.

Mark, I've lived with doomsday pronouncements all my life, so I've become skeptical of them. I'm also pretty impressed with humanity's demonstrated ability to survive just about anywhere (being omnivorous predators helps a lot....)

I'll look up your stuff a little, but I don't see worst case being extinction. Could see some big setbacks in population and technology-level perhaps....

A Google search of 'bulb effect' was fairly worthless. Got any links?

Had similar experince searching 'bulb effect.'

But searching on Guy McPherson found this:

excerpt from
http://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/2...gets-it-wrong/

I googled it.

Got nothing but stuff about light bulbs.

After reading this, I'd say this thread should be moved down one space to the "Conspiracy Theory" section.

Sorry, my bad.
I mean to say "wet bulb temperature". Here is a link to an article about it

http://www.kcet.org/news/rewire/clim...s-extinct.html

and wikimisledia
http://www.kcet.org/news/rewire/clim...s-extinct.html

Just finished the same blog. McPherson does seem to be off by many magnitudes. I'm leaning towards McPherson being a crank and a fairly sloppy one at that. No offense to the OP.

Too late.

Don has already exposed your boy McPherson as a quack.

this is where some of my info comes from
http://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/

Don't give up yet Mark. McPherson uses a lot of the same tactics as the deniers use. That makes him very, very suspect imo.

I don't say quack, but I do find enough reason to be doubtful, and even more to be uninterested. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but McPherson's position is that nothing can be done, the situation is hopeless, we're all going to die, right? Well, if he's right, his message is therefore of no practical value, is it?

It may be of emotional value, of course. For example, one may take satisfaction is the thought that the rotten, awful human race is going to "get it."

OK, I'll own it.

The Dude's a quack.

That being said, I do think we are in for a major bitch slap from Mother Nature.

Ah, the problems is too-hot-plus-100%-humidity. People thus die of heatstroke because sweat won't evaporate so they can't cool themselves.

This problem has many solutions, both low and high tech. In temperate zones, a low tech solution is to live underground--below a few feet the soil temp tends toward the average temp, across summer and winter, for the area. Ever experience the natural air conditioning of Mammoth Cave?

Even in the tropics, one could make survival shelters easily enough. The energy-cheap (no air-conditioning) way to survive is to dry the air. Then you can use evaporating water (your sweat or other water) to cool things. An idea that occurs to me is an apparatus that first heats air, using sunlight, to drive off water, and then cools it to ambient by running it through a radiator of some sort.

My guess is that clever people will come up with even better ideas, as needed.

No practical value? I can certainly see your point in that comment. But, I can also see the use of such knowledge(assuming it is accurate) in redefining your priorities. Something like the question "If you had one day left to live, what would you do?"

And folks, I WHOLE HEARTIDLY invite rebuke, ass whooping, and anything else you can do to refute this. Seriously, beat the crap out of me if I am wrong and show me how.

yours truly,
one scared bug - the cricket
mark

Life on this earth is a continuous evolution. And along with man, technology's has also evolved. Natural laws do not allow an abrupt end, slow decay may be.

http://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/2...gets-it-wrong/

Check this out Mark.

Well since you INVITE rebuke...

:p

I like watching a lot of the gloom and doom stuff. Sadly most of it is very poorly done but a little bit of it is very creative.

That said I don't truly believe anyone, including mainstream stuff. Too much money and I think people get their physic (wrong - how the &^%# do you spell 'sci-key'?) wrapped up in theories, fringe and mainstream. And we think we know a lot more than we actually do - "Oh heck we've been to the moon and have smartphones, we know everything and we're right about everything"

That said there's a million ways the universe could wipe out not just humans but the whole planet (like swatting a fly) or even the entire system. Dust in the (solar) wind.

I believe some things seem more likely than others though :)

My 02.

Pete

That's almost a nickels worth Pete. ;) :D

Psyche?

I did check this out. That article has many good points, but also has its errors. Look up 350.org
This is a site that states once re pass 350 PPM of CO2, the feed back loops begin. At this point, we would have to find a way to remove the CO2 or mitigate the consequences. They did revive their estimates to 420ppm(IIRC), but even so, we are beyond that.

In that article, there is a link to how methane works. I read it carefully. His math may be correct, but his perception of how much CO2 we can handle is way off. That article stated something like 750ppm would be drastic but not catastrophic.

Here is where I get my concern, The arctic is expected to be ice free by 2016.The US Navy estimates, I am also quite certain they would base their estimates on what many scientists say. This ice free arctic should in turn change the jet stream, that will change ocean currents, and so on. By 2020 we will KNOW what is coming. It may be hard, or it may be catastrophic. I do not believe it will be business as usual by any accounts.

http://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/

and here is an article disputing the ice melting - EDIT: more appropriately explains the ice melting as it is
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpr...olume-anomaly/

It certainly seems more scientific.

I'll give it a look see Mark. In the meantime, I agree that unless there are some major shifts in how we make electricity, i.e. low to 0 carbon, we are doomed to some fairly nasty shifts in temps and sea levels.

I was watching a climatologist on Real Time last Friday who was predicting a 70 ft. rise by the end of the century instead of the 6-7 ft. that everyone else is predicting. That put's my home 15 feet under the Pacific ocean :eek:.

It appears to me that McPherson is doing a little of his own fear-mongering which is counterproductive to working towards a whole series of solutions. I guess that's my objection to his message. It's too fatalistic.

I gave up trying to convince people long ago about the human race's march to extinction. I do my part in helping as much as possible to slow it down. But after all we as a race who advanced as hunter gathers. Using up an area and then moving on to greener pastures.

Just have run out of greener pastures and haven't adapted as of yet and don't think there will be time. Plenty of warnings but naysayers won out because it was the easy way.

Some say the ocean will be dead in less then forty years, loosing bee's at an alarming rate. Poising our water to get natural gas we don't need for energy really. Need I go on?








Barney

I'll still be 25 feet to the good. :D

Yeah but you get those things called hurricanes in the Gulf. I'll take the occasional earthquake anyday over those damn things. ;)

I agree.

As I said before we are in for a major bitch slap from mother nature.

But I don't think it will come to extinction, just a thinning of the herd.

I feel once the facts are no longer in doubt for the heads up the a$$ now, there will be wars over the last resources. One fact remains to those who will see what I mean by this, humanity is inhumane at times. Need look at just how stupid most wars are and the destruction and aftermath to see this simple fact.



Barney