How likely is it that the Republicans will win the next Presidential Election?
 

In my opinion, it will never happen.

All the symptoms of a losing party are there. Negative campaigns. A divided and polarized base. Radical candidates.

Its all already going wrong for the Republican Party and, even though the election is quite a while away, I can pretty much predict with 100% certainty that they will lose the Presidential Election.


What do you guys think?

I would agree, except that it is still a long ways out. A lot can happen between then and now.

I think their chances are better than you, as a reasonable human being, might realize, Karl. There are far too many people on this side of the pond who see the presence of right wing radicals in the campaign as a good thing. That it isn't possible for a right-winger to be too radical.

(And, I'm sure a few of them will be along in a moment.:p)

Dave

I'd put it at about 40% once the smoke clears and the GOP nominates Romney. At that point, they can spend a year or so rebuilding their reputation away from its current rampant looniness.

The next ten hours will tell, at the moment the GOP is circling the bowl.

I'm at 40%, but the idiocy of the republicans can easily change this. Despite the poor job that Obama has done, the incumbent usually has a much better chance of getting reelected. I just noticed that Obama has lost 5-8 points of his base voters and has already chased away a significant number of independents. Significantly, the loss was across age groups.

They will lose if white middle class Americans realise that they are wittingly or unwittingly the prime target of the repubs.

You are absolutely RIGHT ON Blue Streak! I have only to judge by what I hear from seniors on a fixed income. We are the fastest growing population and what I hear... is shameful!!
No COL increase for two years...you've seen the cost of everything increase for yourself. Gas prices alone :eek: I wonder what rock these individuals have been living under???

I don't know what to tell you, Painter. And, I'd be willing to bet the "fixed income" most of those folks are on is, at least in part----Social Security. But, these same people are saying we need to balance the budget and stop "People who just sit around and get a check from the government from stealing anymore money from our grandchildren.". Right? And, who would that be? Elderly people on a "fixed income", perhaps?

I like the "generational theft" spin. That truly is top notch propaganda right there, I gotta hand it to them. It's usually accompanied by images of babies. Someone who has worked hard all of their lives and put money into SS for 40-50 years, is-----Stealing food out of the mouths of babies. You heard me right, that is the inference,..... OMG, THEY'RE STEALING FROM BABIES!!!! Oh, the horror of it!

Here's my take.

My taxes helped pay for the Medicare that funded my mothers care right up to the last minute of her life. And, I don't care that the same is being done for others. (After the private insurance system dumped her, because she was cutting into their profits.) My taxes also paid her SS. She, as many women in her generation, was a traditional housewife. She had seven children and stayed home to raise us. And, I don't care that my taxes are also going to other elderly women in the same situation.

My father didn't have to use Medicare (AFAIK), because of a contractual agreement between his union and his employer. He had BC/BS, up to the day he died. He collected SS, but then he also contributed into it for over fifty years.

Were my parents "thieves", Painter?

Are you?

Am I?

I work, always have, and will as long as I still can. When the day comes that must stop working, will I be a "thief" for expecting to collect my SS, even if it costs the working generation as my parents generation cost me?

Nope. I think my parents earned it. I think you probably earned it. And I believe I will have earned it, when the time comes.

I also believe there is something other than a concern over "generational theft" at play here. Something that stinks.

Dave

I think a lamp could beat Obama in 2012. "It's the economy stupid"

I happen to agree with you.

Someone as dumb as a lamp will most likely win in 2012.

Regardless of what happens between now and then.

Dave

Just to reiterate...I was the traditional housewife of the fifties.
My hubby worked for the same company for thirty three years and retired.
We raised three kids...educated in private school and paid the tuition to the university. Remember...the savings of many seniors were tied up in wall street...yep...not a pretty picture for many. That... being what it may...we have always make do on hubby's salary. NEVER had a credit card during our youth...yet managed to take some nice vacations with the kids.

BUGET! Does anyone remember that work???? Or use it?
I'm finding out there are shocking standards for SSI ( some of which allow young people to compute ALL day!).

He** yes I am worried about my children and grandchildren's future. BUT...keep in mind...many senior's children are now unemployed and parents willingly subsidize. Or... divorce brings kids home and grandparents wind up raising a second family.

Society has always been judged by how it treats its young and elderly.
Change will be coming.
Don't let the name teabaggers get to ya...remember Hippies? What ever happened to them? ;)

I was always taught...if service (SSI) is what you pay for...service is what you should get. BBB anyone??? :)

:cool:no lamps running though

None of the GOP candidates are as bright as a lamp. Pretty much dim bulbs, methinks.

Good post, BTW.

Dave

How did I know Twodogs would vote 100%? :p

Reading bits of Robert Samuelson's OpEd piece this morning. Naturally he is against any form of what he calls entitlements. So he starts comparing the U.S. France and Germany as to what percent of the GDP they represent in each country and how unsustainable it is. Strange that all the bleeding economists never compare against Canada. Unless things have changed drastically they look after their people pretty well. Their economy must be chugging along quite well judging by the $CDN value. Guess they are just smarter than the rest of the world.:rolleyes:

The economy is a huge problem for Obama and most here are sidestepping it. Unless something really, really 'patriotic' happens Obama is done for. And he sure isn't getting the kids again. Well maybe, they ain't the sharpest tacks in the... tack barrel? (not dumb just naive)

I voted 90%.

Blue, does that mean even if he wins? :p

Pete

Nope.

Dave

Okay, I won't "sidestep" it.

New thread comin' up.

Dave

I did say 'most'. Interesting word that :p

Repeat after me: President Bachmann. President Bachmann. Lol.

Pete

One more point. Many seasoned citizens volunteer in their communities.... meals on wheels, visit the infirmed in hospitals and nursing homes...etc. I know many who give back to their communities. Including myself.

The seasoned citizen of the 40's and 50's is NOT the one of this twenty-first century. Many take better care of themselves read more and enter this vast information highway to gain better access to the knowledge AND mental challenges to keep them viable individuals. Sans prescriptions...if at all possible.

So old gram/gramps on porchville in their rockers is basically slim to none.

Perhaps that IS the problem. We ARE living longer lives. BUT remember a persons worth is a matter of opinion.

You have it right son. :D

"There are now 3.2 million registered voters in arizona, with the majority of those Republicans followed by Independent voters and then Democrats.

The Arizona Secretary of state's office says about 2,000 people registered to vote since April and more than 71,000 signed up for permanent early-voting.

For the first time since August 2008 the number of registered Democrats has dropped under a million."

Read more: http://www.kfyi.com/cc-common/news/s...#ixzz1TBIkAQO6

I give the R's a solid 80% chance. A border state with our political background and demographics going this direction is pretty interesting.
Don't forget how large the city of Phoenix is.

Absolutely. This is why the belittlement of senior citizen benefits as "welfare" just drives me nuts. My Dad went to work at 14 and didn't retire until age 68. Volunteered to serve in WW2. Volunteered for Civil Defense in the 1950s. Worked hard all of his life and took excellent care of his large family. But, when he started receiving his SS check he became a "welfare deadbeat"? What?:confused:

Dave

Sounds familiar, I went into the workforce in my teens and retired at 73. In that time period I naver asked fo any handouts from either government and paid my taxes on time. Sit on the porch in a rocker? I'd go nuts.

You see merrylander...that handout statement...is demeaning to Americans who worked in the USA and had deductions from their pay stubs. That doesn't MAKE you a better person because you never asked for what you were eligible to get. It tells me you had enough money and didn't NEED any more.
We are paying into a system meant to be used.

I admire your posts very much...but this comparing USA to Canada gets a little long in tooth. There are differences. I have relatives born and raised in Canada. One is an author and journalist. We are both upset with politics in both our countries AND on much the same issues.

I hope you take this post as an explanation of my point. No insult intended. ;)

Retired at 7? And Flac thought it was bad that people retire at 50............

Retiring before you started working, though....there's a time warp for Hawking to ponder.:p

Dave

Looks like we're comin' up with a fairly even spread.....maybe a touch heavy on the lose side, though.

Dave

About 2-1 against the GOP winning. 8 think the GOP's chances are less that 50/50, 4 think that they are better than 50/50, and one calls it a toss-up. I wish the odds against the GOP prevailing were actually 2 to 1, but there's been too much Obama hatin' going on for re-election to ever be a lock, even if the GOP were stupid enough to nominate Bachman.

Regards,

D-Ray

The tenor of many comments in this thread has me convinced that the left truly believes their own negative press, i.e. right from the first thread: "All the symptoms of a losing party are there. Negative campaigns. A divided and polarized base. Radical candidates." Sounds like CNN, MSNBC, DNC talking points.

The field of candidates on the Repub side is not even close to complete. The two candidates that would likely be most competitive - Perry and Christie - are going to wait until the 11th hour to file (if they're going to file). There may be other candidates that will jump in.

When I look at the internals of this poll, I think the liberals may have been oversampled.

BTW, I've yet to vote.

Chas

That was my point. As much as I wish the odds were 2 to 1, this poll is not a realistic assessment.

Regards,

D-Ray

A clear acknowledgement that the current crop of GOP candidates do not cut the mustard.

Regards,

D-Ray

Well, they're not trying to whoop Goliath.

BTW, did you catch Ears addressing the budget ceiling from the bully pulpit?

"We have something in this country which many of you may have never heard of before...it's called a debt ceiling."

I felt as though some weird time warp had transported me back to the 2nd grade!!!

To be fair, whenever Boner pointed out for the upteenth time that he used to be a small businessman, I thought I was going to puke.

Somebody need to write these clowns some new talking points.

They're boring me.

Chas

Sorry, should have edited it, sometimes the left hand does not work too well, problem left over from a difficult breech birth. That should be 73.

None taken, all I was trying to point out is that regulations and citizen care does not equate to socialism nor financial ruin. I still have both family and cousins back there. As a matter of fact there are just over 41 familys there with my surname and if they are not direct family they are cousins at some remove. What upsets me is that I know we can do better but we seem bound and determined to go the wrong way.

I did not mean that I was better for not asking for help, I was simply lucky enough to have married a very astute woman who thinks dollar bills are made of rubber the way she stretches them. When I was self employed we paid taxes quarterly and some quarters Uncle Sugar got nowt 'cause there was no income to tax. The reason I objected to bbeing forced to take SS at 65 was that when added to my income it put me in a higher tax bracket so they prretty near took it all back, and what was the point of that?

Much of the debate back there about SinglePayer for example stems from a similar problem here, only they call it Provincial Rights.:D The Provinces want the Feds to impose all the taxes while the Feds want the Provinces to pick up the slack.

Dear God, all we need is another Texan as prez.:rolleyes:

Considering the economy I think the left is showing its' optimistic side :)

Pete

Especially THAT nutcase. So, maybe you'll say;

"Ooooo, but look at the Texas economy!"

I don't care. I'd rather have economic malaise than live in a country run by a Dominionist Tyrant.

But, that's just me, I'm crazy that way.

Dave

Yeh, but he has good hair. That alone is worth 10 million votes.;)