Supply-Side Economics

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

Also, it might be fun to go back and look at the "gloom and doom" crowd - some of you guys know the type - who said "more than 3% GDP growth wasn't possible. Sure, its only one quarter. But at least right now there's nothing on the horizon to suggest a pull-back...

The Federal Reserve disagrees. Their estimate for 2018 annual GDP growth is 2.8% and even the Lying Dotard just said that he's hoping for an annual growth rate of 3%. BTW, Obama had several quarters of economic growth well over 4%, including 4.6% and 5.2% in Q2 and Q3 of 2014. The Obama economic expansion is getting pretty long in the tooth and Trump is lucky to be able to capitalize on the tail end of it.

BTW, this current GDP number got a significant boost as a result of increased exports due to escalating tensions in advance of Trump's idiotic trade policies, particularly in soybeans.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

There you go again, looking at a single quarter of data and calling it a trend.

But you go right ahead and believe Donny’s lies.

And yet, I specifically said in two posts "..it's only one quarter of data". It also expressed hope that is was the start of a trend, which is an acknowledgement of understanding that a single quarter of data does not equal a trend.

I guess you accuse others of lying because it comes so easy to you. And I also note that you can't even acknowledge that the economy growing a more than 4% is good news.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

And I also note that you can't even acknowledge that the economy growing a more than 4% is good news.

Did you acknowledge good news when quarterly GDP growth rates of 4.6% and 5.2% occurred in Q2 and Q3 of 2014 under Obama?

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

The Federal Reserve disagrees. Their estimate for 2018 annual GDP growth is 2.8% and even the Lying Dotard just said that he's hoping for an annual growth rate of 3%.

Well, dandy. We'll see what happens.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by whell

Well, dandy. We'll see what happens.

I'd gladly wager that next quarter's GDP growth rate will not exceed 4.1%.

[whell]

Originally Posted by finnbow

I'd gladly wager that next quarter's GDP growth rate will not exceed 4.1%.

Even if it "fell" to 3%, that would still be a considered a "win" in my book, since the various economic geniuses said that 3% wasn't possible. I'll bet you that if GDP comes in at 3%, you and Chicket will be in here claiming that its proof that supply side doesn't work, and forget all about how you said 4% riding on Obama's economy.

[Chicks]

Business tax payments plunge, while workers pay more

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/busin...185504363.html

[Chicks]

GDP Isn’t Growing Fast Enough for Markets
Stock and bond investors have been expecting more.

A little dose of reality for our Trumpkin. Donny lied to you. Face the facts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...gh-for-markets

President Donald Trump promised on Thursday that the second-quarter gross domestic product number would be unthinkable. The number was, instead, what everyone expected, and that could pose a problem.

While the 4.1 percent GDP number was the best in four years, it wasn’t the strongest quarterly growth since the recession. And the number appears to be pumped up by a temporary spike in exports ahead of threatened tariffs as well as a jump in government spending. Economists say neither is sustainable. They expect GDP growth to cool to 2.8 percent in the third quarter. Year over year, as opposed to quarter over quarter, GDP was up only 2.8 percent. Go by current estimates, and GDP growth for all of 2018 will come in at 2.9 percent, short of the 3 percent that at least psychologically would suggest some fundamental shift in the economy.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

GDP Isn’t Growing Fast Enough for Markets
Stock and bond investors have been expecting more.

A little dose of reality for our Trumpkin. Donny lied to you. Face the facts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...gh-for-markets

President Donald Trump promised on Thursday that the second-quarter gross domestic product number would be unthinkable. The number was, instead, what everyone expected, and that could pose a problem.

While the 4.1 percent GDP number was the best in four years, it wasn’t the strongest quarterly growth since the recession. And the number appears to be pumped up by a temporary spike in exports ahead of threatened tariffs as well as a jump in government spending. Economists say neither is sustainable. They expect GDP growth to cool to 2.8 percent in the third quarter. Year over year, as opposed to quarter over quarter, GDP was up only 2.8 percent. Go by current estimates, and GDP growth for all of 2018 will come in at 2.9 percent, short of the 3 percent that at least psychologically would suggest some fundamental shift in the economy.

Just to put the "soy bean" talk track BS into perspective.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

First this:

The US economy advanced an annualized 4.1 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2018, well above an upwardly revised 2.2 percent expansion in the previous period and in line with market expectations. It is the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014 amid higher consumer spending and soybean exports while business spending slowed, the advance estimate showed.

So, there were actually two significant drivers: consumer spending and soybean exports. Which driver had the more significant impact on the 4.1% GDP growth number?

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 2.69 percentage points to growth (0.36 percentage points in the first quarter) and rose 4 percent (0.5 percent in the first quarter).

Meanwhile, exports jumped 9.3 percent (3.6 percent in the previous quarter) and imports rose at a much slower pace (0.5 percent compared to 3 percent). As a result, the impact from trade was 1.06 percent, much better than -0.02 percent in the first quarter and the highest contribution since the last three months of 2013.

So, the impact of increased consumer spending had more than twice the impact on GDP growth than exports. And, by the way, increasing exports of any commodity is good news. We'll see if that increase is sustained going forward.

[Chicks]

Originally Posted by whell

Well, dandy. We'll see what happens.

We all better hope Ray Dalio’s 1937 comparison is wrong. It’s tracking 94% right now, which does not bode well. Ray is a great deal smarter than the fake economic advisors Donny has hired. I shudder to think how they will handle a real crisis. They’re likely to throw up their hands and abandon ship.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if...ble-2018-07-26