http://www.latimes.com/business/hilt...05-column.html
"Another stake in the heart of a popular anti-Obamacare claim has arrived from the Kaiser Family Foundation, which compiled the projected premium changes for 2015 in 15 states and the District of Columbia.
Its finding is that premiums for the lowest-cost, most popular individual health plans will be
dropping for next year, by
a nationwide average of 0.8%. (See accompanying graphic.)
Now that insurers have been able to see what their competitors are charging ... they are making strategic adjustments in how they price.- Kaiser Family Foundation, explaining why healthcare premiums are holding steady
That's just one of several indicators recently released that demonstrate that the Affordable Care Act is working as planned and that the parade of horribles so deeply relished by its opponents hasn't materialized. The other metrics show that out-of-pocket spending on healthcare fell in the last year because of the legislation, and that there is no overall shift in the U.S. to part-time work, whether because of healthcare reform or otherwise. More on those figures in a moment.
The Kaiser Family Foundation's Cynthia Cox, Larry Levitt and their colleagues examined rate changes in 16 major cities, which they used as proxies for their states; these were the areas where they could find comprehensive rate information for the coming year. They looked at the premiums for the lowest-cost bronze plan, which offers the lowest level of coverage, and the two lowest-cost silver plans.
The latter are key because 65% of enrollees via the federal and state insurance exchanges choose silver plans, and they're a benchmark for calculating federal premium subsidies. Moderating or reducing their premiums saves money not only for their enrollees, but for the government.
The premium changes for 2015 ranged from an increase of 8.7% in Nashville to a drop of 15.6% in Denver. In Los Angeles, the proxy for California, average premiums are to rise by 0.8%. These are rates
before subsidies are applied.
Compare that with the scare headlines we were seeing as recently as May. The Hill, a journal aimed at members of Congress and their staffs,
screamed, "ObamaCare premiums may see double-digit rise."
The Kaiser analysts list three major factors in the premium pattern. First, insurers know a lot more about the individual market's demographics now than they did a year ago, so they're better at estimating their costs. Second, insurers expect future enrollees to be healthier on the whole than the first wave, which included a larger share of purchasers whose conditions had shut them out of affordable health plans and therefore whose needs were more urgent."