Russia Pulls A Da Nang

[icenine]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34399164

Well the thread title is a bit off since the Russians already have a base there in a place called Tartous. But they have sent a few thousand support troops and a fighter wing into Syria. Problems for them are a lack of military bases in the Middle East and lack of aircraft carriers to support their airbase. So they will have to defend Assad from an "island base" inside of Syria. This is what the BBC World Service was saying this morning.

Da Nang was the first landing of US troops into Viet Nam in in 1965. We already had an infrastructure of advisors in place sent by JFK.

I have a feeling history may repeat itself in Syria with ISIS and the rebels playing the Viet Cong and the NVA to Putin's role as savior for Assad.


One of the lessons of Viet Nam is that if a government cannot stand on its own then it is not a real government. The recent setbacks for Assad make it seem he may be following in South Vietnam's footsteps i.e. not able to stand alone.

Which brings up a awful quandary for the West and their wannabe partner in Syria Putin: Is it better to let Assad hang in the wind and eventually fall, giving over Damascus to ISIS OR get involved in a quagmire with the same end result?

Lousy choice.

[Boreas]

They've begun air operations in Syria.

http://www.rt.com/news/317042-russia...eration-syria/

[Rajoo]

Question remains, are they going to carve out an enclave within Syria for Assad where he can be king or actually engage ISIS on a larger scale. My gut feel also tells me that any partnership with Putin (not Russia) is doomed to fail since Putin always has a personal agenda which includes tweaking the nose of the US. (Obama?).

[donquixote99]

This is worrisome. We now have US and Russian forces in combat mode in the same theatre of war. The possibility of incident for any of various causes becomes high. Then both sides can go into 'can't back down can't show weakness' mode, and bang--you're in an escalating crisis with a big nucelar power.

The downside possibilities of an escalating crisis with a big nuclear power are really really large. Immediate steps to defuse this risk should be taken, before an incident occurs. I'm talking about agreements and close liaison with the Russians.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by icenine

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34399164

Well the thread title is a bit off since the Russians already have a base there in a place called Tartous. But they have sent a few thousand support troops and a fighter wing into Syria. Problems for them are a lack of military bases in the Middle East and lack of aircraft carriers to support their airbase. So they will have to defend Assad from an "island base" inside of Syria. This is what the BBC World Service was saying this morning.

Da Nang was the first landing of US troops into Viet Nam in in 1965. We already had an infrastructure of advisors in place sent by JFK.

I have a feeling history may repeat itself in Syria with ISIS and the rebels playing the Viet Cong and the NVA to Putin's role as savior for Assad.


One of the lessons of Viet Nam is that if a government cannot stand on its own then it is not a real government. The recent setbacks for Assad make it seem he may be following in South Vietnam's footsteps i.e. not able to stand alone.

Which brings up a awful quandary for the West and their wannabe partner in Syria Putin: Is it better to let Assad hang in the wind and eventually fall, giving over Damascus to ISIS OR get involved in a quagmire with the same end result?

Lousy choice.

Comparison to fortunes of Da Nang is misplaced. Assad is defending a section of Syria in which his minority and other minorities see him as a savior.

In other other words in that area there are much less fifth columnists compared to the Viet Nam situation.

Isis has terrified so many minorities that the Alawites see no alternative but to fight to the last man. They are not going to run. They will be supported by other Shias.

Russia is not there to supply boots on the ground: there are enough local boots for a defensive posture.

[icenine]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Comparison to fortunes of Da Nang is misplaced. Assad is defending a section of Syria in which his minority and other minorities see him as a savior.

In other other words in that area there are much less fifth columnists compared to the Viet Nam situation.

Isis has terrified so many minorities that the Alawites see no alternative but to fight to the last man. They are not going to run. They will be supported by other Shias.

Russia is not there to supply boots on the ground: there are enough local boots for a defensive posture.

You are wrong. The so-called moderates and ISIS will launch attacks on the Russians as soon as they are able to get close enough.

[Boreas]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

This is worrisome. We now have US and Russian forces in combat mode in the same theatre of war. The possibility of incident for any of various causes becomes high. Then both sides can go into 'can't back down can't show weakness' mode, and bang--you're in an escalating crisis with a big nucelar power.

The downside possibilities of an escalating crisis with a big nuclear power are really really large. Immediate steps to defuse this risk should be taken, before an incident occurs. I'm talking about agreements and close liaison with the Russians.

I'm pretty sure that the "nuclear option" is off the table for all concerned (including Israel). That being said, the fact that the US, with its allies, and the Russians are operating in the same area with apparently little to no coordination or cooperation is a recipe for disaster.

And, speaking of Israel, how much of this, if any, is connected to Netanyahu's recent trip to Moscow?

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by icenine

You are wrong. The so-called moderates and ISIS will launch attacks on the Russians as soon as they are able to get close enough.

I do not believe I am wrong about a sympathetic population.


Anyhow a Russian view.

http://www.rt.com/op-edge/317035-syr...russia-troops/

[Boreas]

RT: Russian military in Syria: ‘Diametrically different approach’

“We know that Washington and Moscow are cooperating and that Washington is giving tacit support. It’s precisely the result of the meeting that occurred in the UN building between presidents Putin and Obama. Moscow would inform Washington about its airstrikes in order to prevent any kind of accidents, any kind of conflict breaking out,” he said.

RT: Russian military forces start airstrikes in Syria - Ministry of Defense

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said that Russia indeed requested that American aircraft avoid Syrian airspace during the Russian air missions, but the US military will not comply.

"The US-led coalition will continue to fly missions over Iraq and Syria as planned and in support of our international mission to degrade and destroy ISIL (Islamic State)," Kirby said.

[icenine]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

Comparison to fortunes of Da Nang is misplaced. Assad is defending a section of Syria in which his minority and other minorities see him as a savior.

In other other words in that area there are much less fifth columnists compared to the Viet Nam situation.

Isis has terrified so many minorities that the Alawites see no alternative but to fight to the last man. They are not going to run. They will be supported by other Shias.

Russia is not there to supply boots on the ground: there are enough local boots for a defensive posture.

I would posit that thousands of the Syrian middle class have left because Assad and ISIS are seen as equivalent evils. I mean if he so stable why is Russia stepping in? Assad has lost large chunks of his army lately.