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  #31  
Old 02-10-2017, 10:18 PM
MrPots MrPots is offline
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Originally Posted by Dondilion View Post
Oh no! The anti children noise.
Our capitalist system is nothing more than a giant pyramid scheme, one that is playing out to the end as we sit here. More children will only bring more hunger and suffering.

We can't take care of what we have now. So we breed more?
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  #32  
Old 02-10-2017, 10:22 PM
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Pio1980 Pio1980 is offline
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Someone explain please how consumer economy prosperity works without an ultimately unsustainable expanding population.
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  #33  
Old 02-11-2017, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by donquixote99 View Post
You've got the whole economics thing backwards. The economy doesn't shrink, it expands because more consumers are spending more money. You're assuming everyone who's now making 40 or 60K a year is going to quit for maybe 20K? Keep in mind this guarantee doesn't do anything to change the economy and people's costs structure. If they have a mortgage, they still have a mortgage. I expect the 20K* guarantee will mostly go to top up people whose unemployment has run out and can't get that much at the part time gigs they are stuck with, or who are stuck on minimun social security, or such like.

*20 K just a notional guess at how much. Maybe less, maybe more.
How are folks spending more money? That makes no sense.

In your scenario you've created a "fixed class" who have money to buy only essentials. A number of folks in that newly created class used to buy more than essentials, even if they did it on shakey credit. Now that their income is fixed and they have no opportunity to earn more, they won't even be able to get shakey credit. Step one to a shrinking economy.

Since you've removed buyers from the marketplace of anything more than "essentials", businesses that manufacture, sell, make parts for, make accessories for, provide services for, etc., non-essential goods and services find themselves chasing after fewer buyers. Supply and demand: price for non-essentials starts to fall, businesses that can't compete lay off workers or shut down. Step two to a shrinking economy.

Finding fewer job opportunities in the businesses that manufacture, sell, make parts for, make accessories for, provide services for, etc., non-essential goods and services, you've created additional supply of workers. Supply and demand: an abundance of labor drives down the cost of labor since more people are competing for few jobs. Step three to a shrinking economy.

Some of those workers will find jobs in businesses that manufacture essentials, albeit at lower wages, or the same wage with few opportunities to see their incomes rise. Step 4 to a shrinking economy.

And yes, some of those workers will make the decision that its easier to get by than beat their heads against the wall in the job market, and opt for the "fixed class". Step 5 to a shrinking economy.

Finally, fewer productive workers supporting those in the fixed class, and a eventually the shrinking money supply and shrinking tax base will force the gov't to raise taxes - whether on individuals or business - to support the fixed class. At this point, not only do we have Step 6 to a shrinking economy, but since we're pulling additional capital out of the productive economy for tax, return to Step One. This is called an economic death spiral.
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  #34  
Old 02-11-2017, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Pio1980 View Post
Someone explain please how consumer economy prosperity works without an ultimately unsustainable expanding population.
Immigration, legal or otherwise.
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  #35  
Old 02-11-2017, 08:52 AM
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donquixote99 donquixote99 is offline
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Originally Posted by whell View Post
How are folks spending more money? That makes no sense.

In your scenario you've created a "fixed class" who have money to buy only essentials. A number of folks in that newly created class used to buy more than essentials, even if they did it on shakey credit. Now that their income is fixed and they have no opportunity to earn more, they won't even be able to get shakey credit. Step one to a shrinking economy.

Since you've removed buyers from the marketplace of anything more than "essentials", businesses that manufacture, sell, make parts for, make accessories for, provide services for, etc., non-essential goods and services find themselves chasing after fewer buyers. Supply and demand: price for non-essentials starts to fall, businesses that can't compete lay off workers or shut down. Step two to a shrinking economy.

Finding fewer job opportunities in the businesses that manufacture, sell, make parts for, make accessories for, provide services for, etc., non-essential goods and services, you've created additional supply of workers. Supply and demand: an abundance of labor drives down the cost of labor since more people are competing for few jobs. Step three to a shrinking economy.

Some of those workers will find jobs in businesses that manufacture essentials, albeit at lower wages, or the same wage with few opportunities to see their incomes rise. Step 4 to a shrinking economy.

And yes, some of those workers will make the decision that its easier to get by than beat their heads against the wall in the job market, and opt for the "fixed class". Step 5 to a shrinking economy.

Finally, fewer productive workers supporting those in the fixed class, and a eventually the shrinking money supply and shrinking tax base will force the gov't to raise taxes - whether on individuals or business - to support the fixed class. At this point, not only do we have Step 6 to a shrinking economy, but since we're pulling additional capital out of the productive economy for tax, return to Step One. This is called an economic death spiral.
You describe some pitfalls that the program would have to be designed to avoid, but to a large extent you just haven't gotten you mind around the one really radical aspect, and it's implications. I refer to the funding source, which is created money, not tax money.

This means any reduction in tax receipts (which will be not so large, since the program targets people who don't pay income taxes anyway) will be counterbalanced by a reduction in current tax-funded assistance for the poor. It also means people like you don't have to go around fuming that your tax dollars are supporting 'deadbeats.'

You think there's no room for increase in consumption at the low end, with people scraping by now on incomes of 12K a year?

I'm fine with there being provisions that encourage supplementing the support with wages. The goal is a large net increase in consumer buying power, stimulating economic growth, despite any marginal abandonment of work. My guess is most work-abandoners will be persons with no opportunity to make a living wage in the first place, so there will be no reduction in consumer spending for 'non-essentials.' Those people weren't buying new cars or central air conditioners anyway.

I'm also very fine with starting slow on this. Experiment, see if your assumptions or mine are more borne out in practice. Change things as necessary as you learn.
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  #36  
Old 02-11-2017, 09:33 AM
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Tom Joad Tom Joad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donquixote99 View Post
You describe some pitfalls that the program would have to be designed to avoid, but to a large extent you just haven't gotten you mind around the one really radical aspect, and it's implications. I refer to the funding source, which is created money, not tax money.

This means any reduction in tax receipts (which will be not so large, since the program targets people who don't pay income taxes anyway) will be counterbalanced by a reduction in current tax-funded assistance for the poor. It also means people like you don't have to go around fuming that your tax dollars are supporting 'deadbeats.'

You think there's no room for increase in consumption at the low end, with people scraping by now on incomes of 12K a year?

I'm fine with there being provisions that encourage supplementing the support with wages. The goal is a large net increase in consumer buying power, stimulating economic growth, despite any marginal abandonment of work. My guess is most work-abandoners will be persons with no opportunity to make a living wage in the first place, so there will be no reduction in consumer spending for 'non-essentials.' Those people weren't buying new cars or central air conditioners anyway.

I'm also very fine with starting slow on this. Experiment, see if your assumptions or mine are more borne out in practice. Change things as necessary as you learn.
I like this idea Don.
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  #37  
Old 02-11-2017, 09:41 AM
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Tom Joad Tom Joad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whell View Post
How are folks spending more money? That makes no sense.

In your scenario you've created a "fixed class" who have money to buy only essentials. A number of folks in that newly created class used to buy more than essentials, even if they did it on shakey credit. Now that their income is fixed and they have no opportunity to earn more, they won't even be able to get shakey credit. Step one to a shrinking economy.

Since you've removed buyers from the marketplace of anything more than "essentials", businesses that manufacture, sell, make parts for, make accessories for, provide services for, etc., non-essential goods and services find themselves chasing after fewer buyers. Supply and demand: price for non-essentials starts to fall, businesses that can't compete lay off workers or shut down. Step two to a shrinking economy.

Finding fewer job opportunities in the businesses that manufacture, sell, make parts for, make accessories for, provide services for, etc., non-essential goods and services, you've created additional supply of workers. Supply and demand: an abundance of labor drives down the cost of labor since more people are competing for few jobs. Step three to a shrinking economy.

Some of those workers will find jobs in businesses that manufacture essentials, albeit at lower wages, or the same wage with few opportunities to see their incomes rise. Step 4 to a shrinking economy.

And yes, some of those workers will make the decision that its easier to get by than beat their heads against the wall in the job market, and opt for the "fixed class". Step 5 to a shrinking economy.

Finally, fewer productive workers supporting those in the fixed class, and a eventually the shrinking money supply and shrinking tax base will force the gov't to raise taxes - whether on individuals or business - to support the fixed class. At this point, not only do we have Step 6 to a shrinking economy, but since we're pulling additional capital out of the productive economy for tax, return to Step One. This is called an economic death spiral.
Actually the idea that Don has presented is a damned good one and just might work.

And that's what terrifies you.
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  #38  
Old 02-11-2017, 10:34 AM
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Dondilion Dondilion is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom Joad View Post
Actually the idea that Don has presented is a damned good one and just might work.

And that's what terrifies you.
But you still should address his argument re shrinking economy.
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  #39  
Old 02-11-2017, 10:40 AM
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nailer nailer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pio1980 View Post
Someone explain please how consumer economy prosperity works without an ultimately unsustainable expanding population.
It can't and the consequences are dire.
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  #40  
Old 02-11-2017, 10:46 AM
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Tom Joad Tom Joad is offline
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Originally Posted by Dondilion View Post
But you still should address his argument re shrinking economy.
Like I said, I'm a type B slacker.

So I'll let donquixote do all the work while I kick back and take snarky little potshots at Whell.
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