Public Preference for a GOP Congress Marks a New Low in Obama’s Approval

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by piece-itpete

DQ, did you read it? Our Fearless Leader is getting hammered pretty hard on many of the top issues of the day - the economy: "Notably, economic views are linked with preferences for control of Congress regardless of people’s partisan affiliation."

Heath care costs: "One reason is that the law seems to have opened an avenue for public ire about health care costs to be directed at the administration. Six in 10 blame the ACA for increasing costs nationally, and 47 percent think it’s caused their own health care expenses to rise. Regardless of whether or how much those costs would have risen otherwise, Obamacare is taking a heavy dose of the blame."

Ukraine (which is currently a proxy for foreign policy as it's on the news, my take): "Given continued tensions over Ukraine, just 34 percent of Americans approve of how he’s handling that situation, 8 points fewer than early last month."

Looks dark for the midterms overall: "General anti-incumbency results: Just 22 percent of Americans say they’re inclined to re-elect their representative in Congress, unchanged from last month as the fewest in ABC/Post polls dating back 25 years." Me again: That would include the Rep Revolution.

Speaking of that the whole thing reported as bad news for the left comes down to our favorite prankster Bill Clinton's comment, it's the economy, stupid

But it's not sweetness and light for the GOP. If you look at the 'Trust to Handle Issues' graphic on page 5 (can't copy/paste) the Dems come darn close to a clean sweep. It goes on:

"The Republicans have some vulnerability in other areas, as well. Americans say the Democratic Party comes closer than the GOP to their positions on climate change, by 18 points; whether or not to raise the minimum wage, by 16 points; gay marriage, by 14 points; and the issue of abortion, by 8 points. On one remaining issue, gun control, the Republicans have a slight, 5-point edge."

This appears to be a long term problem though, vs a short term.

A big paste:

"OBAMA/GROUPS – Divisions among groups remain especially stark in terms of Obama’s ratings; further, as noted, he’s lost ground in some of his core support groups. The president’s approval rating since early March has lost 14 points among liberals, 12 points among people with postgraduate degrees, 10 points among urban residents, 9 points among Democrats and 7 points among those with incomes less than $50,000. He’s lost 9 points among independents as well.
With 41 percent approval overall (his previous low was 42 percent last November and the same in October 2011), Obama’s at new lows among nonwhites (61-34 percent, approve-disapprove) and liberals (63-31 percent), and matches his lows among moderates (46-48 percent) and independents (33-59 percent). His rating among Democrats, 74-22 percent, is a single point from its low.
Other results also mark the extent of the difficulties facing Obama and his party alike. A form of statistical analysis called regression finds that, as noted above, views on the economy correlate both with congressional vote preference, and views on which party should control Congress, independently of partisan affiliation. That suggests that the Democrats are in serious need of a positive shift in economic views.
That may be hard to accomplish. While 50 percent of Democrats say the economy’s in good shape, that plummets not only among Republicans but independents as well, to 12 and 22 percent, respectively. And while 46 percent of Democrats see improvement in the economy, again just 22 percent of independents, and 15 percent of Republicans, agree.
Preferences on which party controls Congress may reflect a general inclination in favor of divided government – and don’t always predict outcomes, as in 2002, when more registered voters preferred Democratic control yet the GOP held its ground. It’s striking, nonetheless, that this poll finds Republican control favored not only in the 2012 red states, by 56-36 percent, but also by 51-41 percent in the blue states that backed Obama fewer than two years ago."

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Long and short, unless the economy significantly improves soon it appears that the GOP is set for serious gains in the midterms if not a walkover.

But it's still a ways off, and, what do I know?

Pete

It ia indeed interesting data, and I appreciate your summary, which spurred me to look it over in detail. Clearly there are challenges, as usual, for the incumbents in the midterm. Midterms are an occasion when 'bad is stronger than good,' as voters are more apt to pay attention to continuing sources of dissatisfaction, after a presidential election cycle that of course promised All Good Things.

Still, the basic trust of the electorate in Democrats to handle issues remains, for the Democrats to build on. Accomplishments on healthcare and the economy are in fact solid and positive. The belief that the ACA has driven up health care costs per procedure is not factual. And the economy has recovered as well as it could, given the stranglehold the Republicans have placed on stimulative spending, and the Republican ability to block important reforms like the minimum wage increase. If Democrats can communicate better on these issues, this polling shows how a significant number of votes may be flipped. The problems shown here can and should be treated by the Democrats as opportunities.