Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

[GChief]

Originally Posted by donquixote99

Speaking of price games, prices here just shot up $.40 overnight....

I keep seeing people posting about price increases. We have been steady here for over a week now. Been paying $3.19 at the BP I use since early last week.

[whell]

Originally Posted by Chicks

DeSatan calls impacts from Ian potentially 'a 500-year flood event'

https://www.wesh.com/article/desanti...rida/41441488#

Sorry your crystal ball was so badly broken. You should feel even dumber than you are right about now, but you're incapable of shame, sadly.

I should feel dumb? It's you that apparently thinks Desantis is some sort of climate scientist, bonehead.

The data just doesn't support the premise that "climate change is causing more frequent and severe named storms. Sorry, but it doesn't. Check out the data here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml This data goes back to 1851. Page 15 here updates the data for through 2010. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf.

Even this data is problematic in a couple ways:
1) the hurricane ranking scale we use today (Cat 1 - Cat 5) has been around only since 1971. The create the table on page 15, NOAA had to go back and extrapolate rankings from available data.
2) Of course, the further back in time you go, the less reliable and consistent that data will be.

Be that as it may, it appears that the frequency and severity of named storms has actually been DECREASING slightly. That's true if you look back to 1851, but it's also true if you look at just the last 50 years. In the last 50 years, the average total named storms by decade is 14.29 versus the historical average of 17.7. Also, in the last 50 years, the average of named storms Cat 3 or greater is 5.43 versus the historical average of 6.

Those historical averages include Katrina in 2005, which was one of the worst storms of the last 150 years in terms of financial impact and severity.

[whell]

Originally Posted by GChief

I keep seeing people posting about price increases. We have been steady here for over a week now. Been paying $3.19 at the BP I use since early last week.

I filled up for $3.87/gallon last week. Yesterday I noticed that the price at that same station was $4.09.

[donquixote99]

Originally Posted by GChief

I keep seeing people posting about price increases. We have been steady here for over a week now. Been paying $3.19 at the BP I use since early last week.

Enjoy while you can!

[GChief]

Originally Posted by whell

I filled up for $3.87/gallon last week. Yesterday I noticed that the price at that same station was $4.09.

Still $3.19 when I drove by this morning.

[Rajoo]

$5.50+ here in RNO, $120 for a fill up. This after the traditional summer peak prices.

[Chicks]

Will Hurricane Ian force Ron DeSantis to confront climate reality?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ne-ian-florida

Unlikely. His record of climate change denial is as horrific as that of any MAGAMoron.

[GChief]

Finally got here $3.29

[donquixote99]

Local paper says recent jump in Midwest is due to short supply due to a couple of refinery fires. Should head downward again pretty quick they say.

[Mark B]

Originally Posted by whell

I should feel dumb?**** It's you that apparently thinks Desantis is some sort of climate scientist, bonehead.

The data just doesn't support the premise that "climate change is causing more frequent and severe named storms.**** Sorry, but it doesn't.**** Check out the data here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml **** This data goes back to 1851.**** Page 15 here updates the data for through 2010. ****https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf.

Even this data is problematic in a couple ways:
1) the hurricane ranking scale we use today (Cat 1 - Cat 5) has been around only since 1971.**** The create the table on page 15, NOAA had to go back and extrapolate rankings from available data. ****
2) Of course, the further back in time you go, the less reliable and consistent that data will be. ****

Be that as it may, it appears that the frequency and severity of named storms has actually been DECREASING slightly.**** That's true if you look back to 1851, but it's also true if you look at just the last 50 years.**** In the last 50 years, the average total named storms by decade is 14.29 versus the historical average of 17.7.**** Also, in the last 50 years, the average of named storms Cat 3 or greater is 5.43 versus the historical average of 6. ****

Those historical averages include Katrina in 2005, which was one of the worst storms of the last 150 years in terms of financial impact and severity.

More data is always good when it comes to understanding climate change.

The Wikipedia article linked to below has a number of charts on Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, including hurricane Emily (2005) and later hurricanes not listed on any of the numerous charts in the articles linked to in Whell's post.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ricane_records