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06-25-2018, 03:17 PM
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Admin
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain in California
Posts: 37,228
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Whats the Yield Curve? A Powerful Signal of Recessions Has Wall Streets Attention
"You can try to play down a trade war with China. You can brush off the impact of rising oil prices on corporate earnings.
But if you’re in the business of making economic predictions, it has become very difficult to disregard an important signal from the bond market.
The so-called yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done before with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street.
Terms like “yield curve” can be mind-numbing if you’re not a bond trader, but the mechanics, practical impact and psychology of it are fairly straightforward. Here’s what the fuss is all about.
First, the mechanics.
The yield curve is basically the difference between interest rates on short-term United States government bonds, say, two-year Treasury notes, and long-term government bonds, like 10-year Treasury notes.
Typically, when an economy seems in good health, the rate on the longer-term bonds will be higher than short-term ones. The extra interest is to compensate, in part, for the risk that strong economic growth could set off a broad rise in prices, known as inflation. Lately, though, long-term bond yields have been stubbornly slow to rise — which suggests traders are concerned about long-term growth — even as the economy shows plenty of vitality.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has been raising short-term rates, so the yield curve has been “flattening.” In other words, the gap between short-term interest rates and long-term rates is shrinking."
NY Times
cont. here - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/b...T.nav=top-news
It'll be interesting to see how 'I Alone' Trump and his cronies will react to the coming recession. My guess is they'll throw up their hands and start screeching that it's all the black guy's fault and his braindead followers will buy it lock, stock and barrel.
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I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
- Mr. Underhill
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06-26-2018, 08:56 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 13,360
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Investors Should Brace for a 'Frightening' Recession
As if paper losses of $20K yesterday wasn’t fun enough... Don’t worry, though, Donny’s in charge, and Whell says we can trust him!
https://www.investopedia.com/news/in...ing-recession/
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, noteworthy for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, is becoming increasingly worried about the direction of the U.S. economy and stock market. "The next recession is really frightening because we don’t have any stabilizers," he said on June 18, as quoted by MarketWatch. “We’ll have monetary policy, which will exhaust really quickly, but we don’t have any fiscal stabilizers," he added. Jones was participating in a Talks at GS event, interviewed by Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke also warns that the U.S. economy is likely to nosedive, once the massive dose of fiscal stimulus delivered by federal tax cuts and spending hikes wears off.
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"In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -
George Orwell
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06-26-2018, 09:14 AM
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Jigsawed
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Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,580
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We are due for a recession.
DJ inherited Obama's bubble.
Claiming it was a huge error on DJ's part.
He had pointed out all the funny statistics and dubious features of the economy when he was not president, but as soon he became president he conveniently forgot all his critical points.
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06-26-2018, 09:56 AM
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Rational Anarchist
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Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,315
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Obama just happened to be president when the rip repair was completed and the bubble began reinflating. Trump is putting stress on the bubble that Hillary and the failed Republican primary candidates wouldn't have. Our stock market bubble will eventually burst due to BESF (bubble expansion stress fatigue).
A difference between the parties is that Republican policies tend to inflate the bubble at a faster rate thus increasing BESF. That they cut taxes without cutting spending further increases BESF.
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"We have met the enemy and he is us."
Last edited by nailer; 06-26-2018 at 10:26 AM.
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06-26-2018, 10:37 AM
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Jigsawed
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Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 10,580
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nailer
That they cut taxes without cutting spending further increases BESF.
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True!!
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06-26-2018, 12:08 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 13,360
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U.S. cruises toward record-breaking debt on Trump's watch
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...records-651929
The nation’s fiscal outlook looks ever bleaker, thanks in part to deficit spending during President Donald Trump’s first term, Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorekeeper projected Tuesday.
Within 16 years, the federal deficit is expected to be the largest in history, outpacing even the fiscal shortfalls that followed World War II, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.
__________________
"In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -
George Orwell
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08-06-2018, 12:30 PM
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Admin
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain in California
Posts: 37,228
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More job growth in Democratic counties than Republican ones: report
"More jobs are being created in Democratic counties than GOP strongholds that voted for President Trump in 2016, according to an Associated Press analysis, contradicting the president's assertions that jobs are "flooding back" into economically vulnerable areas that voted him into office.
The news service found that 58.5 percent of the significant job gains touted by Trump were concentrated in areas that backed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The AP also found that 35.4 percent of Trump counties have lost jobs in the past year, compared to 19.2 percent of Clinton counties.
The most significant job gains have occurred in the counties that include liberal cities Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Seattle, according to the AP."
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/40...ublican-report
Wait! Whut?
__________________
I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
- Mr. Underhill
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08-06-2018, 03:48 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Metro Detroit
Posts: 13,016
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobabode
"More jobs are being created in Democratic counties than GOP strongholds that voted for President Trump in 2016, according to an Associated Press analysis, contradicting the president's assertions that jobs are "flooding back" into economically vulnerable areas that voted him into office.
The news service found that 58.5 percent of the significant job gains touted by Trump were concentrated in areas that backed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The AP also found that 35.4 percent of Trump counties have lost jobs in the past year, compared to 19.2 percent of Clinton counties.
The most significant job gains have occurred in the counties that include liberal cities Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Seattle, according to the AP."
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/40...ublican-report
Wait! Whut?
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Of course, the other way to look at this is that Obama told us that those jobs were "never coming back". And look - they're coming back.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ong-2018-08-03
Oh, and from that same article:
Brookings compiled a list of the top 10 states by contribution to 2016-2017 national manufacturing job growth. Only two states listed, California and Illinois, did not vote for Donald Trump.
The chart is in the linked article.
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08-06-2018, 03:51 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Metro Detroit
Posts: 13,016
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicks
U.S. cruises toward record-breaking debt on Trump's watch
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...records-651929
The nations fiscal outlook looks ever bleaker, thanks in part to deficit spending during President Donald Trumps first term, Congress nonpartisan budget scorekeeper projected Tuesday.
Within 16 years, the federal deficit is expected to be the largest in history, outpacing even the fiscal shortfalls that followed World War II, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.
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And yet, Debt to GDP or 2017 was VERY SLIGHTLY less than it was in Barry's last fiscal year. Still to high, and needs to come way down. We'll see what 2018 brings.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...nt-debt-to-gdp
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08-06-2018, 04:04 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 13,360
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U.S. Manufacturers Are Not Reshoring
https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveba...not-reshoring/
In conclusion, the Kearney report points out, "the long-term trend of manufacturing products for the US market in countries such as China and other Asian low-cost countries has not been curbed and, even though 2017 and the roaring first half of 2018 are providing optimism for the US manufacturing sector, it will take more than political headlines to effect any meaningful and lasting change."
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"In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -
George Orwell
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