Did We Win the Iraq War (or even the Surge)

[icenine]

Originally Posted by Dondilion

If the state is splintered, weakened and many factions fighting each other who cares about the brotherhood. The brotherhood can be proxied.

What is feared is a cohesive vibrant state.

Yeah a cohesive state being run by an idealistic (to themselves anyway) Muslim Brotherhood who are true believers when it comes to defeating Israel. We may have to send troops to Israel someday to protect that nation's existence. Israel has two nations on her borders that are far from stable( Egypt and Syria) and where we can quote Mr. Strummer and say "the future is unwritten." Then we have Iraq...will they follow are lead or will they join the anti-Israel coalition?

I am fairly conventional I do support Israel although I am against the far right wing there.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by icenine

I am sure Israel would prefer to have Assad and Mubarak to deal with right now than crusading democracies who may actually want to really destroy them.

Originally Posted by Dondilion

What is feared is a cohesive vibrant state.

I'm not sure I'd yet consider any of the Arab Spring countries to be crusading democracies or cohesive vibrant states, either of which Israel would probably be thrilled to have as a neighbor. I'm not sure how I would characterize Egypt, Syria, Libya or Yemen, but democracies or vibrant states would be close to my last choices.

[icenine]

I am making the point that should these states become democracies Israel will still face challenges. I am not calling them that yet. The situation is very fluid. My larger point is that the Arab Spring is not necessarily a good thing for stability in the region vis-a-vis Israel.

[icenine]

None of the states you mention Finnbow are anything like they were two years ago.

[finnbow]

Originally Posted by icenine

I am making the point that should these states become democracies Israel will still face challenges. I am not calling them that yet. The situation is very fluid. My larger point is that the Arab Spring is not necessarily a good thing for stability in the region vis-a-vis Israel.

Originally Posted by icenine

None of the states you mention Finnbow are anything like they were two years ago.

I agree completely. What exactly were we disagreeing upon exactly?

[Dondilion]

My point is Israel greater fear|: an anti Israeli state which is not under the US thumb but is functionally together and with the potential to challenge Israel.

Iraq was once such a state. Israel bombed their nuclear aspiration and America took care of the rest.

Syria was once such a state. Israel also bombed its nuclear ambition. It is now eating itself.

As to Egypt. This state is bought by the USA. The Brotherhood is compromised and has enough opposition to keep it off balance.

The real challenge now is Iran. Just listen to the pressure!

[icenine]

Sorry lol

[icenine]

Or a government-less Syria with Al-Queda elements doing all sorts of bad things; a new Somalia is not a good thing in the Middle East right now.

[Dondilion]

Originally Posted by icenine

Or a government-less Syria with Al-Queda elements doing all sorts of bad things; a new Somalia is not a good thing in the Middle East right now.

Not a big problem for Israel.

[piece-itpete]

A very nice thread, thanks everyone.

I tend to agree with Dond that it covers too much. Still ok though.

My take, there's some really really big things missed. Forget that Korea even at the 38th parellel 'contained' the Reds. What about having US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia - infidels in the Holy Land?

Yes 'we' wanted Saddam gone. I have no doubt that this was as true in the 90s as 2001. He was a destabilizing influence on the whole region!

I just don't see the 'loss'. Did we want Iraq to become a prosperous democracy, friend of the US? Of course. But just because it isn't doesn't mean certain important objectives weren't met.

Btw, I agree with the author on one certain observation, that it's not that big of a deal over time, with thes caveat, that it's influence may have at least helped jumpstart the Arab Spring.

Pete