Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War

[whell]

Yep, he's been saying this stuff for years, but the frequency and urgency of Xi's directives to military and political leaders to prepare for war (and associated military training activity) has heightened of late, or so it seems to me. I wonder if Xi sees an opportunity to execute plans to take Taiwan, in a way that the opportunity looks more likely to succeed now than at any time in recent history.

1) While the US has been sending weapons to Ukraine, it has had difficulty rapidly replacing some of those weapons to rebuild its own supply.

2) Chinese military capabilities have increased to the point where they could sufficiently support a blockade of Taiwan. This would be a preferred option to an invasion of a heavily defended and logistically challenging invasion of Taiwan. China rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan in April 2023.

3) If such a blockade were to be put in place by China, Taiwan would need military and non-military support from its allies to survive and break the blockade. The principal ally in this effort would be the United States and its Pacific Fleet.

4) China may perceive an opportunity: a potential lack of willingness by the US to immediately and comprehensively respond to a blockade of Taiwan. China might be taking lessons from the European allies' "incremental" approach to assisting Ukraine. Of course, the US's historical relationship with Taiwan as well as the strategic interest the US has with Taiwan are vastly different than the Ukraine. But will that make a difference is the willingness of the US to use force if necessary?