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  #531  
Old 07-29-2018, 10:38 AM
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whell whell is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by finnbow View Post
You, like your idiotic Dear Leader, don't know the difference between a trade deficit and a budget deficit. Every post you make on matters economic should how little you truly understand it.
You're full of shit, Finn. I posted about a trade deficit, which can have exactly the corrosive effects that I discussed. I'm not sure how you found a reference to a budget deficit with my comments about a loss of skills necessary to make some products???

I think we're back to wondering about your ability to comprehend what is posted.
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  #532  
Old 07-29-2018, 10:39 AM
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whell whell is offline
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Originally Posted by Chicks View Post
Really? And what does this sound like? A “stable genius”?

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!
6:13 AM · Jul 29, 2018
Sounds like a negotiation tactic to me.
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  #533  
Old 07-29-2018, 11:08 AM
Chicks Chicks is offline
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Originally Posted by whell View Post
Sounds like a negotiation tactic to me.
Really? But surely Mexico is going to pay for the wall, as your Dear Leader promised time after time! You’ve drunk the Kool-Aid, when will Mexico pay?
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  #534  
Old 07-29-2018, 11:10 AM
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finnbow finnbow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whell View Post
You're full of shit, Finn. I posted about a trade deficit, which can have exactly the corrosive effects that I discussed. I'm not sure how you found a reference to a budget deficit with my comments about a loss of skills necessary to make some products???

I think we're back to wondering about your ability to comprehend what is posted.
You posted "What we do have is increased debt when an economy imports more than it exports" as if there is a clear and demonstrable relationship between the budget deficits and trade deficit. There isn't.
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  #535  
Old 07-29-2018, 11:11 AM
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finnbow finnbow is offline
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Originally Posted by whell View Post
Sounds like a negotiation tactic to me.
It sounds like a negotiation tactic meant to ensure a Democratic House majority. Democrats would dearly love the Lying Dotard shutting down the government in the month before the election.
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  #536  
Old 07-29-2018, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by donquixote99 View Post
The point isn't the economics, which includes good effects as well, and may or may not involve increased debt. The point is what Trump believes, and he believes trade is a zero-sum conflict, and you're LOSING if you have a deficit.
Can you post evidence that he's stated this?

I think that issue is something quite different. We're in a global economy now. The US net trade balance is actually looking pretty decent over the last couple month but historically it's concerning:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...lance-of-trade

An economy with less outflows of goods and services versus inflows is not, all by itself, necessarily a bad thing. But it can have a corrosive effect on the types of jobs available, and how much those jobs are worth in the economy. And that's what Trump, from my view, keeps coming back to in the argument about trade imbalances.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business...eficit/509912/

Trade deficits, even in times of strong growth, have negative, concentrated impacts on the quantity and quality of jobs in parts of the country where manufacturing employment diminishes. Even the economists who argue (incorrectly, we believe) that the trade deficit doesn’t affect the total number of jobs do admit that it affects the composition of jobs. There is, for example, a lot of research confirming that deindustrialization in the Rust Belt is partly a result of the fact that America meets its domestic demand for manufactured goods by importing more than it exports. One oft-cited academic study found that imbalanced trade with China led to the loss of more than 2 million U.S. jobs between 1991 and 2011, about half of which were in manufacturing (which worked out to 17 percent of manufacturing jobs overall during that time).* Further, the economist Josh Bivens found that in 2011 the cost of imbalanced trade with low-wage countries cost workers without college degrees 5.5 percent of their annual earnings (about $1,800). Far from a small, isolated group, these workers represent two-thirds of the American workforce.
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  #537  
Old 07-29-2018, 12:22 PM
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whell whell is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by finnbow View Post
You posted "What we do have is increased debt when an economy imports more than it exports" as if there is a clear and demonstrable relationship between the budget deficits and trade deficit. There isn't.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-trade...rtners-3306276

An ongoing trade deficit is detrimental to the nation’s economy because it is financed with debt. The United States can buy more than it makes because it borrows from its trading partners. It's like a party where the pizza place is willing to keep sending you pizzas and putting it on your tab. This can only continue as long as the pizzeria trusts you to repay the loan. One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over.

A second concern about the trade deficit is the statement it makes about the competitiveness of the U.S. economy itself. By purchasing goods overseas for a long enough period of time, U.S. companies lose the expertise and even the factories to make those products.


Note the difference between a discussion of the "budget deficit" and the national debt. We're taking here about the increasing debt of the US Gov't. Now, you could argue that no one today credibly questions the ability of the US to pay its debts. But what about 10 years from now, or 20, or 30. There's no current plan to reduce the size of the US debt, including the current occupant of the Oval Office. To the extent that reducing the trade imbalance reduces the expansion of current debt, that's a good thing. But as the article above points out, the party can't go on forever. There are current examples of exactly that scenario.
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  #538  
Old 07-29-2018, 12:31 PM
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finnbow finnbow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whell View Post
Can you post evidence that he's stated this?
His zero-sum view of trade is one of his few consistent (and consistently wrong) positions.

https://www.quora.com/Is-Trump-right...-zero-sum-game

http://fortune.com/2017/01/23/trump-...ress-zero-sum/

https://www.dartmouth.edu/~rstaiger/...p_June2017.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ris...ics-1469033016
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  #539  
Old 07-29-2018, 12:31 PM
Chicks Chicks is offline
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David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
All eyes are on tomorrow’s Q2 GDP data. Most forecasts now are north of 4%. But here’s the rub. At least half the growth is coming from two trade-related issues – a soybean-led export burst and inventory accumulation. Net these out and we remain near 2%. Then strip out the tax goodies, and we are truly at stall speed (which becomes more evident in Q3 and Q4).
5:33 AM · Jul 26, 2018



Unlike Whell, this guy is an actual economist. We’ll see just how wrong Whell is in a quarter or two. Of course, he will be posting some other fake nonsense by then, ignoring this thread...
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  #540  
Old 07-29-2018, 12:43 PM
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finnbow finnbow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicks View Post
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
All eyes are on tomorrow’s Q2 GDP data. Most forecasts now are north of 4%. But here’s the rub. At least half the growth is coming from two trade-related issues – a soybean-led export burst and inventory accumulation. Net these out and we remain near 2%. Then strip out the tax goodies, and we are truly at stall speed (which becomes more evident in Q3 and Q4).
5:33 AM · Jul 26, 2018

Unlike Whell, this guy is an actual economist. We’ll see just how wrong Whell is in a quarter or two. Of course, he will be posting some other fake nonsense by then, ignoring this thread...
It should be abundantly clear by now that Whell understands virtually nothing about economics. He just parrots nonsense from Trump, Navarro, and Kudlow. Kudlow, Trump's chief economic advisor, doesn't even have a degree in economics and Navarro, his primary trade advisor was discovered by Jared Kushner after a search of book titles on Amazon.
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