Quote:
Originally Posted by donquixote99
Found a data set of hurricanes by year that also includes a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) per year. Sort of a sum of the power of all storms large and small that year.* Taking 10 years at a time and summing these values to a decade ACE score seemed to me to be a good way to smooth out weather variability and get at the climate trend. Here's the data by decade when I do that:
Decade___sum ACE
1851-1860 493.4
1861-1870 539
1871-1880 849
1881-1890 885.6
1891-1900 1205.3
1901-1910 720.8
1911-1920 589.6
1921-1930 765.3
1931-1940 1016.2
1941-1950 887
1951-1960 958.1
1961-1970 1109.1
1971-1980 739.3
1981-1990 726.6
1991-2000 1094
2001-2010 1347
2011-2020 1235.2
2001-2010 is by far the largest ACE sum of any decade. 2011-2020 is #2. All three decades from 1991-2020 have ACE sums exceeding 1000. There had never before been even two decades in a row exceeding 1000. This seems to indicate a trend of increasing hurricane energy, as is expected from increased heat input.
* Definition of ACE: "A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence."
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/...=northatlantic |
You're wasting your time. You'll never get through to mister never give up-never surrender.