[donquixote99]

I've heard the analysis Hofstadter cited before, and it makes sense to me. The South's leaders saw themselves being outvoted in congress, in the future. Because of tariffs? Ridiculous. Tariffs they had. The new threat was Republicans in power, because Republicans were firm on blocking slavery in all new states. And someday the blacks would gain civil rights, if the southerners were outvoted. Someday their ability to oppress blacks freely would slip, they feared.

And oh, did they fear the slaves. They feared them because of guilty knowledge, and because of Nat Turner's rebellion (the antebellum South's 9/11), and because of John Brown. They were scared as hell of the blacks. That's what drove secession.